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Global Markets Analysis – 20 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.10.2015 周二 油脂商品走弱,激进短线操作者可反手短空

华盛顿10月20日消息,美国农业部(USDA)公布的每周农作物生长报告显示: 截止10月18日当周,美国大豆落叶率为96%,大豆收割率为77%,前一周为62%。从数据得知美国大豆已基本停止生长,尚未收割剩余的20%也将于本月末最后一周基本收割完毕,基本符合我们前期的预期。在随后的10月份美国农业部月度与季度报告中,美国大豆的总产量将会最终尘埃落定,一锤定音。

在这个收割尾声阶段,美盘黄豆连与美盘豆油12月昨日晚间期价出现双双下跌, 其中美豆油12月合约,在连续多日围绕60天均线挣扎徘徊之后,终于出现我们所担心的技术心理问题-长时间不能远离关键技术阻挡位,短线多头能量不能有效放大,则势必造成空头主力的主动打压,昨日晚间美豆与美豆油双双从60天均线上方滑落下来,短线技术走坏,在收获季节最后阶段,后市不排除最后一次期价下挫过程。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,昨日周一盘中期价下跌,今天周二早盘更是低开低走,期价继续下坠瞬间变得明朗,后市存在重心下移过程,在上周末以及昨天周一盘中建议多单减仓之后,今天短线激进操作者可反手短空操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,昨日周一盘中低开低走终盘中阴下跌报收,表明当前马盘棕榈油的回落整理短线行情仍在延续中,该品种虽早于美盘与内盘油脂商品提前出线回落整理走势,但后市仍有追随美盘豆油与国际原油走低可能,但下方的下探空间相对会较小。

小结:中国国家统计局昨日公布中国第三季度GDP增长为6.9%,这是6年以来中国GDP增长速度首次下滑到7%以下。这对大宗商品带来一定负面影响,从全球商品综合指数 CRB指数观察,大宗商品存在期价下滑,吸收消化该利空消息影响可能。其中油脂类商品在中国大豆收获季节以及美国大豆总产量明朗的最后阶段,不排除后市短线仍有下探一次的可能,从盘面观察,这已经从油脂商品昨日与今天的盘中表现可窥一斑。油脂商品短线我们以期价下探短空观点看待。个人观点认为短多减仓出局后,激进操作者可少量反手空单入场,追随期价短线下挫运行轨迹操作, 理念上:由于当前是收获季节的最后尾声阶段,因此下方的回落空间暂时不要看的太大太远,建议耐心等待下探结束后的多单进场机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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