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Global Markets Analysis – 20 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.10.2016 周四 油脂类商品多单继续持有

美盘大豆期价低位反弹上行延续中,前期美国报告中所提及到的美大豆单产与总产量创纪录增加的利空消息正逐渐被吸收消化,市场已经提前认同了该基本面消息的不利影响。在美国新豆丰收季节-无论是技术性买盘也好还是强劲的市场需求心理因素影响也罢,美国人不傻,不会在美豆大量上市前-给自己的大豆定一个较低价位,起码也要给美国豆农一个心理上的安慰,后市美大豆上1000美分仍是可以期待的。美盘豆油12月合约,短线上扬走势上远强于大豆,美豆油依托5日均线震荡上行态势良好,盘中未出现技术走坏迹象,我们继续短多思维对待,不受外界干扰。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,在本周一(10月17日时候,双双涨停板长阳收盘,虽然随后几天期价出现了盘中反复迹象,但期价仍顽强的震荡上攻,我们完全有理由相信-本周一拉涨停板的新进场的主力资金不会这么轻易的就撤退(远没有达到他们的利润目标要求),我们多单继续持有(耐心等待更理想的价格再考虑多单平仓)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,该品种短线走势上心理情绪变化较大,市场操作人士心态不稳,10月18日的中阴冲高回落下跌对市场带来不利影响,还好周三与周四盘面上期价依然依托5日均线十字星表现,但成交量略有萎缩,市场追涨热情有所减弱,我们谨慎中保持看多观点。

小结:全球油脂类商品的短线震荡上行反弹行情延续中,盘中未出现任何盘面上的技术走坏迹象,因此我们有理由相信,后市期价仍会再上一个小台阶,我们保持短多观点不变。观点认为操作上:前期新老多单继续持有,同时密切关注美盘豆油的后续表现。

[SUMMARY]
• In the midst of an upward reversal in global edible oil prices, China markets have yet to see adverse technical indications.
• As such, we have reason to believe there is still some room for the upward trend to extend, maintaining our short-term long position outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain existing long positions, while paying a close attention to US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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