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Global Markets Analysis – 20 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.09.2016 周二 昨日马来西亚棕榈油长阳飙涨一举突破前高;今日大陆内盘油脂商品补涨

昨日周一晚间,美盘豆油12月合约中阳上涨,短线的小3浪回调结束信号出现,今天亚洲电子盘早盘又继续中阳红盘表现-美豆油真正的反身上行走高拉开序幕,我们昨日报告中提到,“利空出尽便是利好”,美大豆单产从48.9上调到50.6蒲式耳/英亩,这是一个创天量的数字,而美大豆还尚未收获完成,未来的单产变数还有待从新调整,因此后市下方回落空间将变得非常小,而上涨空间将会很大-美豆油的第三浪主升浪将展开,多头观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油11月,昨日周一盘中表现抢眼,期价高开高走长阳飙涨,创2周来最大单日涨幅,并且一举突破了2016年3月29日(2669令吉特)以来的所有高点的技术阻挡,后市短线的上涨空间被打开,这是我们早先时候就一直预测期待的,昨日终于演变成现实,我们散户朋友后市短线空单全部离场,以单边上涨观点对待, 后市第二上涨目标位看高到-2014年3月11日的高点2798令吉特。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,在美盘豆油与马盘棕榈油双双上涨带动下,今天周二早盘也追随性高开高走补涨,前期的颓废走势一扫而空,其中内盘棕榈油更是于今天早上9点30分左右封于涨停板,强势特征开始显示-我们以单边的多头市场看待。

小结:马盘棕榈油与美盘豆油昨日双双上涨,特别是马盘棕榈一举长阳突破了前高点的技术阻挡(宣告2016年3月以来所有2669以下的空单全部被套;无一盈利),因此后市短线的技术上涨空间将被打开-我们保持中长线的看多观点不变,多单继续持有。而短线角度美豆油的小3浪下挫调整结束以后,第三大浪的主升浪是我们一直早早就期待的,我们将追随油脂市场多方观点对待。观点认为具体操作上:短线空单全部平仓离场,原来中长线多单继续乐观持有,场外观望的无仓交易者多单跟进,后市油脂商品将有不错的上涨空间利润。

[SUMMARY]
• Malaysian palm olein broke previous resistance; may climb higher in the short-term.
• U.S. soybean oil also rose.
• Outlook for medium and long-term long positions remains strong.

[OPINION]
• Short-term short positions may be closed-out.
• Medium and long-term long positions may be maintained.
• Uncommitted traders may enter long positions due to strong uptrend profit opportunities.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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