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Global Markets Analysis – 20 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.09.2017周三美盘豆油昨日期价下跌触及到下方60天均线后红盘收盘

美豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间曾一度阴K线下跌,当期价触及到下方的60天均线后,在技术性买盘与低位空单平仓双重作用力下,期价由阴转阳,终盘以阳K线上涨收盘,说明短线美豆油在下方60天均线处有一定的心理支撑(毕竟日图表上均线系统为多头排列)。后市美豆油将继续考验60天均线的实际支撑效果,期价还会在该技术位置反复震荡几次,若一旦证明该位置期价支撑有效,恐将会出现新的变盘动。

作,这点我们要在心理上提前做好准备。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,短线市场表现依旧为“强势震荡整理”,期价波动幅度不大,短线走势无新意。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月),昨日周二盘面长阴下跌(光头光脚实体阴K线),期价下挫幅度较大,这也跟前期期价反弹上行过程中,期价涨幅大于其他品种有关。就昨日期价来说——与我们上周初反手空单进场成本基本持平,而后来逢是高加仓进场空单肯定是盈利,就平均成本价格应该不会出现亏损。考虑到美盘豆油昨日晚间的表现—–今日周三,马盘毛棕榈油空间期价会出现反复(红盘表现),部分盈利空单逢低减仓一部分,对于激进型短线交易者是可以实施的。

小结:美盘豆油昨日晚间回落整理到下方60天均线位置,盘面出现短暂的支撑,该位置的支撑效力如何?有待我们随后三天的密切关注。具体操作上:为防止美盘豆油触底支撑有效,建议部分散户交易者可于今天开盘第一时间部分盈利空单适量逢低减仓,在仓位上先减少一半,让这一半利润先“入袋为安”,这样我们进退攻守二者均兼备。今天周三盘面难免会出现期价反复现象(特别是马盘棕榈)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oils continued its downward correction last night, but it rebounded after touching a 60-days moving average.
• To verify the reversal, we may pay close attention to the market in coming three days.

[ACTION]
• In case the reversal is true, retail traders who are holding short positions may take profits and reduce positions when the prices are low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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