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Global Markets Analysis – 21 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.04.2016 周四 新进中长短线多单继续持有;全球油脂类商品反弹上行延续中

阿根廷近期出现频繁暴雨,这对大豆种植户来说损失可达20多亿,大豆产量锐减。因对阿根廷大豆产量下降的担忧提振美国黄豆连出现暴涨,昨日周三晚间美盘大豆长阳飙涨,期价突破1000美分,盘中上涨出现加速迹象。在美豆上涨影响下,美盘豆油7月合约短线做多热情也被带动起来,美豆油后市短线仍有上行空间,继续保持反手后的短多思维对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品,豆粕1609合约紧紧追随美盘大豆走势,期价加速持续上扬,短线走强迹象明显。内盘豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,今天周四盘中也出现多头发力迹象,增仓上行表明短多主力进场明显,期价创出自2014年7月份以来的新高,表明我们前期在大观点上对油脂商品震荡筑大底后的反弹“反转”观点是较为正确的。对内盘油脂商品短线角度来说,我们继续保持追随期价运行轨迹线路的短多观点对待。

马来西亚船运调查机构ITS昨日周三发布的数据显示,4月1日至4月20日马来西亚棕榈油出口量为737685吨,比上月同期提高3.5%。在美盘豆油、美盘原油、 大陆内盘油脂商品整体走强提振下,马来西亚棕榈油基准7月,连续几日期价跳空高开,虽然盘中上涨没有内盘油脂商品走势凌厉,但考虑到周边外围商品市场的整体提振作用,我们继续保持马棕榈回调整理结束后的反身上行观点不变。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线角度的反弹上行走势延续中,期价出现了较大幅度的涨幅,我们继续保持回落整理结束后的反身上行观点不变,后市继续看高一线。个人观点认为操作上:中长短线多单继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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