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Global Markets Analysis – 21 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.08.2017 周一油脂类商品整体出现短线走强

受助于一波低吸买盘与空头回补双重力量作用下——-美盘豆油12月合约上周五晚间中阳上涨,至此,K线形态上瞬间形成了“三颗红小兵”反身上行状态,美盘豆油的突然走强,比我们预期的早了一天,我们也要及时转变思维,以暂时的短线反弹观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,期价依托多头排列的均线系统(下方40天均线),受美盘豆油走强提振,今天周一早盘红盘上涨表现,我们建议老空单全部出局,短多跟进。

马来西亚方面,考虑到主要消费市场印度(排灯节)中国(中秋节)油脂商品需要提前一个月备货,未来消费旺季到来,这也是马棕榈前期拒绝下跌的主要心理原因。马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在上周五的就提前红盘上涨(更早一步三颗阳K线上涨表现),今天周一早盘仍小幅高开,短线稍微整理之后,存在挑战前高可能(若一旦突破7月31日,8月14日前高,则上方再无阻挡压力)会进一步走强 ,我们密切关注马棕榈的后期表现。

小结:全球油脂商品整体出现走强(包括纽约原油上周五晚间也长阳K线上涨),期价的瞬间变动比我们预期的早了一天。对油脂类商品来说——-当前不具备单边独立大涨行情,仅会出现瞬间的盘面快速多空转变,并且转变的速度非常快,往往超出市场的预期,我们建议散户朋友以短线观点对待当前市场,在这频繁变盘的基本特征前提下—–我们要做的就是尽量“踏对市场节拍”,在多空频繁转变时候,快进快出的短线操作手法追随市场。具体操作上:剩余老空单全部出局,反手短多跟进,油脂市场后市存在震荡走高可能。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils begins to show an uptrend, earlier than we had expected.
• Edible oils may not move greatly in either direction. Instead, markets may oscillate at a faster pace.
• Retail traders are advised to view markets in a short-term timeframe.
• We are hoping to capture the market rhythm, entering into and exiting from positions in short durations.

[ACTION]
• Traders may liquidate short-positions and switch to long, in anticipation of a possible uptrend.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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