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Global Markets Analysis – 21 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.12.2014周日 油脂商品本周回顾及展望

12月15至19日当周,美原油5天来下跌幅度收窄,期价呈带上下影线的十字星K线整理,19日周五时候期价略有走高,虽盘中期价有所反复,但仍不足以证明下跌已经结束。国际原油后市仍需一段时间的下方支撑验证。

美豆油商品3月主力合约,5个交易日来期价在箱体位置32.00一线横盘,期价变化不大,盘中多空换手调整仓位迹象明显,但短线走势的方向性模糊,不具有操作价值,场外观望为宜。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约,短线下挫态势明显,其中豆油1505合约5个交易日惯性下跌,盘中弱势明显。棕榈油1505合约周一时候中阴下跌随后4个交易日横盘下挫性震荡,二品种日内逢高短空操作手法适合,但在临近2008年金融危机时候的低点附近,下方的空间也不可盲目太乐观,日内见好就平仓为好。

马来西亚毛棕榈油基准2月,本周5个交易日中走势略有怪异,周一周二跳空低开下挫,而后周三、周四、周五又跳空高开上行,整体期价仍在大区间范围内运行(上方60天线阻挡,下方10.16日前低支撑)短线波动幅度为2200-2100(100点之间),后市在此小区间内恐仍震荡一段时间,走势上尚需要密切关注国际原油与美盘豆油的影响。

综述:对于内外盘油脂类商品来说,我们长线角度与短线角度已经描述过多次,基本面也好或技术面也好,相信大家已经充分理解我们对后市走势的整体看法,从大规模层次角度来说我们前期观点保持不变,在这里也不在复述。由于对短线的细节角度上的不确定性,是影响到当前走势的重要因素(美豆油已到技术支撑位,美原油差一小段尚未到),后市美原油的具体走势对其他油脂商品到底何种影响就显得尤为重要,后市走势上我们仍需关注此点。寻支撑过程一般理论来讲是个漫长过程,(有时还会出现瞬间上的下破)所以我们继续保持下行性质下的短线疲软观点, 盘中的小幅走高恰好是逢高短空的短线机会,但下方的空间我们也不再看很大很远, 耐心等待这个筑大底过程结束。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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