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Global Markets Analysis – 21 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.18.2015 周一 油脂商品短线止跌企稳 短线空单全部平仓离场

美盘黄豆连上周五晚间率先红盘中阳上涨,延续了上周四的红盘表现,短线角度的反身上行出现苗头。美盘豆油3月合约,上周五也追随美盘大豆走强,在12月17日的盘中低点恰好是回落到10月21日的高点位置,短线的技术回抽确认过程基本完成,若今日晚间美盘豆油还能继续走强,则短线的反身向上将宣布成立。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油 1605主力合约,上周五盘中期价触及下方60天均线(豆油),终盘以带下影线的小阳K线收盘,今天周一早盘又红盘上涨,短线反身向上的迹象开始显现,上周五我们曾建议短线空单先平仓了结出局,若后市期价能保持继续走高,则新的一波反弹上行将展开,短线继续关注美盘今晚以及明天的表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,上周五红盘中阳小涨之后,今天周一受美盘和内盘油脂类商品走强影响,早盘跳空高开,期价形成了错列上行态势苗头,随后2日若还能保持走高迹象,则同样宣布回落结束,从新展开反弹上行走势。建议当前空单逐步减仓。

小结:当前全球油脂类商品的短线回落整理行情出现结束信号苗头,此前我们从价格运行轨迹方面提前就预测过,并且以3浪形态具体描述过—1浪.先反弹上行 2浪.回落整理 3浪. 反身继续反弹上行。当前油脂商品就运行到2浪与3浪拐点位置。这对短线敏感型交易者要率先引起警惕。 个人建议在操作上:长线交易者多单继续持有,中线波段交易者的原多空锁单中的空单开始逐步减持,而短线交易者手中的空单,上周五我们已经建议部分先平仓离场,今天则建议剩余部分完全平仓出局,后市存在反弹上行可能。其中激进操作者空单离场后可反手多单跟进,以保持始终有仓单在手追随期价的运行轨迹进行操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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