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Global Markets Analysis – 21 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.12.2016周三 美盘豆油期价下挫到40天均线附近;内盘与马盘油脂期价受拖累走低

美盘豆油3月合约,昨日周二晚间期价继续回落整理,当前期价下破20天均线,整理来到下方的40天均线位置,在日K线图表上-多头排列的均线系统,下方的40-60天均线位置将存在一定的技术支持(原本我个人就预期美豆油就要回落到该位置一线),美豆油短线的回落整理走势延续中,今天为12月7日创高点以来的回落的第11个交易日。

内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,本周一强势上涨昙花一现,在没有美盘支持下,最后还是冲高回落下来(内盘豆油上破整理区间上沿动作,变成假动作),昨日周二期价又继续中阴下跌,追随美盘豆油走势又变得明显起来(事后证明,单独内盘基本面的变化比如国家环保部门的对油脂压榨企业的停产令只能是一时盘面表现而不能长久)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,上周末时分的盘面强势特征也未能坚持许久,在美盘与内盘油脂商品走弱拖累下,马盘棕榈昨日也跳空低开低走期价下跌,看来没有美盘的支持,马盘与内盘的单独走强确实难度很大。

小结:美盘豆油下挫回落整理进行到第11天,下方的回落空间开始收窄,内盘与马盘油脂商品在多头主力护盘下曾一度拔高上冲-大有走独立行情的欲望,但没有得到美盘豆油的支持下,终将以失败告终。现在短线走势又追随美盘回落整理, 考虑到美盘整理的较为充分,我们新进多单可谨慎持有,耐心几日等待美盘整理结束后的触底反弹走势发生。

[SUMMARY]
• As US soybean oil goes into the 11th day of its downward correction, the downside room for correction begins to narrow.
• China and Malaysia edible oils attempted to climb higher, with the help of strong long interest, but failed without the support of US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders with long position may patiently and cautiously wait to observe the performance of US soybean oil as soon as the downward correction ends.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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