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Global Markets Analysis – 21 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油3月合约(1月),昨日晚间期价一度上攻,我盯盘到凌晨2点多, 但最后一小时期价再度下挫,终盘收盘时期价下破趋势线—–前期我们提到过,1月趋势线位置为33.00 3月为33.20. 今日周四亚洲电子盘期价仍在趋势线下方运行,截止上午十点,1月为32.90,美豆油3月为33.10一线, 美豆油趋势线的“下破”有效性? 一天时间我们还不能完全确定, 但给予了我们警惕信号。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约(1801),今天周三盘面中阴下跌,美豆油趋势线技术位置的下破给予内盘多头主力沉重心理打击,盘面上多头止损盘部分涌出, 空头主力趁机继续打压期价。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日周三盘面期价变化不大,盘面交投清淡。 今天周四截止到目前,马棕榈尚未开盘——考虑到美盘豆油下破趋势线,以及内盘油脂商品走低, 这恐将对马盘棕榈油带来负面影响(马盘棕榈前几日有强烈的反弹欲望)。今天马盘散户朋友,可适量早盘空单进场。

小结: 美盘豆油“下破”趋势线, 下破信号的可靠性,在一个交易日内尚不能完全确定(至少2–3个交易日),但这一信号给我们散户朋友敲响警钟,我们还是谨慎对待为妙。 具体操作上: 前期被套多单持有前提下, 今天周四早盘空单进场, 激进型空单可日内获利平仓,稳健型可今日空单与前期多单形成反向“锁单”, 以便留出2天时间来观察美盘豆油“下破趋势线”的可靠性,做一个安全保障。

• US soybean oil broke below the support uptrend line, which is a reliable signal of the market might continue to move downward.
• Retail traders should be alert on the market with bearish signal.

• Defensive traders may liquidate long positions and stay out of the market at the moment, as we await clearer signals from US soybean oil market.
• Aggressive traders who are holding long positions may initiate short positions for intraday trading.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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