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Global Markets Analysis – 21 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

21.02.2017 周二 胜不骄 败不馁 理清头绪最关键

美盘豆油昨日周一因公共假期休市,今天亚洲电子盘小阳K线表现。从日K线图表上观察美豆油5月合约—原本我们预测回落整理走势为3浪结构,并且在2017年1月底左右结束(恰逢内盘春节放假),到内盘开盘后在2月7–8号时候出现独立的阳K线上涨,令我们匆忙中短线多单跟进。 而美豆油上周初的阴K线下跌,又使得内盘 马盘油脂商品无功而返,随着近几日的连续阴跌,美盘豆油出现了5浪下跌结构—也就是说从2016年12月7日高点位置开始的这波下挫整理走势,出现了5浪下跌整理结构,当前的第5浪进行中,并且从幅度 长度上观察接近了尾声阶段。这样的话,我们从思维上就对美盘豆油有了更清晰的认识,美豆油演绎的是一波中线大级别的下挫整理行情。(5浪结束以后必有技术走势上的反弹)

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,春节过后曾出现过假动作(2.6日的止跌 2.8日 2.10日中阳上涨),但由于美盘豆油是要演绎5浪结构,因此内盘油脂商品上周5个交易日追随美盘下跌(5连阴),令我们短线追进的多单被套。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,上周五的低开低走表现令盘面走势突然走坏,接下来本周一 本周二又阴K线表现,本波的下挫是对前期(从2016.7.12日)的反弹上行走势进行的一个大的回落整理修复,虽然周K线图表上依旧是均线系统的多头排列,但短线日K线图表上出现了均线系统掉头迹象苗头。

小结:全球油脂类商品技术走势我们基本清楚了—–本波中线回落整理为 更大级别的下挫整理,我们当前的短线多单进场时机发生误差—给进到美豆油的第4浪上了,这就让我们多忍受一个第5浪的下挫时间,美豆油5浪结束之后,会有一个短线反弹机会—这是我们多单的出场机会,(为了弥补损失我们还需在美豆油的5浪底位置,对应的内盘,马盘油脂商品上低位跟进一些多单),这样我们才能更积极从容的整体多单出场(摊低多单成本),(多单出场后 我们接下来的操作将转为逢高放空上去的概率加大)。因此当前操作我们就要在被动中更为谨慎一些, 操作建议: 前期被套多单持有, 密切关注美盘豆油第5浪的结束节点时机(就应该在本周内),届时我们第一时间通知大家。 而当前首要任务—-密切关注美豆油的未来几天的动向(2种走势可能 1.再急挫一下反身向上 2.突然就5浪下跌结束反身向上)。我们当前就是把思维捋顺,理清,节凑把握好,不能再被内盘马盘假动作欺骗。

• We now have a clearer picture of the technical trend of global edible oils.
• The downward correction was larger in magnitude than expected, implying that we may not have entered long position at the best time.
• We are hoping for an short-term upward reversal which would allow us to close-out long positions more favourably.
• As such, we shall be cautiously passive at the moment.

• Traders whose long position that had been adversely affected may wait for the downward correction of US soybean oil to end.
• Priority at the moment is to observe the performance of US soybean oil in the next few days.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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