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Global Markets Analysis – 21 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.01.2016 周四 内盘与马盘油脂商品走弱;美盘豆油尚变化不大

国际原油市场持续下跌,全球经济不景气烦躁担忧情绪被无限扩大,市场投资人士悲观情绪较浓。其中纽约原油在破位50美元/桶大关后,期价持续下跌,当前期价美原油连已经下挫到30.00美元一线下方,我们早先也说过,美原油下破关键技术位后,下方已经找不到任何的技术支持位,期价只能在集体空头资金的打压下以及生产商的卖出套保盘(原油生产商在期货市场上做空;期货市场的资金盈利部分来抵消现货市场的原油价格下跌带来的损失)令国际原油价格出现超乎想象的被动下挫。空头力量何时收手意愿才是国际原油市场止跌企稳的唯一动能(国际原油市场黑幕情况较为复杂)。国际原油市场疯狂暴跌后,必定后市有更大的报复行情在酝酿中。这在2016年注定发生。

美盘豆油3月合约短线观察,期价并未受到多大影响,盘中波动较为正常,期价仍然维持在30.00一线横盘震荡,但盘中上升动能与下跌动能均不够强大,不足以发动一波令人舒服的波段运行行情。期价更多的呈现被动性横盘整理状态,这与当前全球油脂商品包括其他大宗商品的整体疲软情况分不开,当前油脂商品在操作上难度变得越来越大,甚至令人对行情产生诡异感觉。该上不上而该下也不下。最为令人苦恼。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605合约与马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,在美盘豆油3月期价未能给出明确方向指引带动情况下,今天周四盘中,内盘与马盘油脂商品出现下跌疲软走势,这也与当前国际原油期价持续下滑,令投资人心态发生细微变化,内盘空头力量在今天盘中有所增强,今天内盘豆油1605期价中阴下跌到60天均线位置,而棕榈油1605合约则被空头打压到60天均线下方,建议在棕榈油1605合约上短多止损,短线激进交易者反手短空,形成豆油、棕榈油一多一空跨品种套利操作特殊模式。而马盘棕榈油4月,由于外界受国际原油创新低的心理不利影响,以及马来西亚国内棕榈出口放缓,令吉特走强等内部不利因素担忧,今天周四盘中也同样追随内盘油脂商品走低,马棕榈基准4月期价下破了60天均线,已经触及了我们提前设置的止损位目标,也建议短多出局,激进者短空操作。

小结:全球油脂商品短线走势上再起波澜,整体大背景下的大宗商品的疲软走势令油脂商品空头气氛再度增强,油脂类商品的短线走势上的一波三折在所难免。鉴于今天周四盘中,大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品的不利走势,我们建议短线多单止损出局,或跨品种锁仓操作,或短线反手短空,(跨品种锁仓,中长线与短线反向跨周期锁仓)以规避一下盘面上不利走势给我们散户朋友带来的账面损失。建议密切关注美盘豆油今日晚间是否也被拖累期价下跌。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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