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Global Markets Analysis – 21 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.07.2016 周四 马盘棕榈油7连阳上涨;短线的反弹上行走势表现良好

美盘黄豆当前连短线呈现下挫走势,这是对前期长时间反弹上行之后的一种大的回落修复走势。而美盘豆油由于前期是早于美盘大豆提前发生的回落整理(美豆油是4月21日便发生回落整理而美大豆是6月13日才开始)。因此在美大豆当前下挫整理时候,美盘豆油12月合约并未紧密跟随,仅仅是抵抗性横盘震荡,由于二者时间节奏上的不同步走势,略微影响到了美盘豆油技术反弹上行的高度与力度,这也是当前美盘豆油不温不火与左右两难境界的原因。

大陆内盘油脂商品中,内盘大豆与豆粕的短线走势出现下跌,并且短线的下跌幅度不小。内盘豆油1609合约也并未跟随,期价仅仅保持一种不上不下的震荡走势。内盘棕榈油1609品种,前几日期价已经反弹到60天均线位置,这几日期价始终围绕60天线的阻挡徘徊不前,仅仅从内盘豆油与棕榈油1609合约来说,当前的短线反弹走势仍延续中,虽然受到中国大陆方面国储大豆抛储消息的利空情绪影响,当能顽强抵抗也当属不易。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,短线的反弹上行走势可谓良好最为吸引人眼球,可圈可点,从马盘棕榈油近7天来的表现来看-期价高开高走不断爬升,超跌之后的技术性反弹走势表现明显,当前期价在技术上已经完全弥补了7月5日向下的跳空缺口,基本上符合我们的第一目标预期,我们散户朋友在逢低空单平仓了结出场后反手新进多单可继续持有。(锁仓空单离场后,相信原锁仓操作的老多单也已基本解套,新多单盈利,老多单保本)

小结:美盘与内盘油脂商品抵抗性弱势反弹走势延续中,虽然近几日期价变化不大,但我们的反弹上行观点不变。马盘毛棕榈油期价上行走势凌厉,前期技术上的跳空缺口已经被弥补,虽然后市存在连续独立拔高之后的更短线周期层面的整理要求(小时图表上),但不会影响日K线图表上继续反弹的态势,多单可继续持有。后市认为只要技术上未发生大的变化前;我们继续看高一线。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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