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Global Markets Analysis – 21 July 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.07.2017周五天气炎热难耐市场投资人士心态急躁

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周四晚间追随美黄豆连期价走高,在短线走势上期价瞬间的转换频率较快,整体盘面上暴漏出“天气市”特有的情绪波动特征。对于本周美盘豆油的先抑后扬走势,我们保持一份警惕——-密切关注7月11前高点34.44位置,若下周初期价能站稳该点上方,则表明美豆油反身上行的开始。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1709合约,短线走势不疼不痒,期价整体波动不大,对市场影响有限(鸡肋)。对 内盘棕榈油1709合约来说,则要多出一份谨慎心态—–该品种本周三期价触及下方60天均线,周四期价小阳走高,今天周五早盘高开低走。内盘棕榈油期价在7月11日5540高点之下与下方60天均线5310之间波动徘徊。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,短线走势上与内盘棕榈油基本一致,期价也在7月11日高点2614令吉特发生的冲高回落,进过几天短暂下跌回落整理,于本周三接近下方60天均线后——用周四一天的跳空阳K线,令盘面发生了微妙变化,今天周五盘面上期价暂时高开低走表现。是否在酝酿上破7.11日前高?这点要引起我们下周初的注意。

小结:昨日周四一天的期价瞬间变化,令当前油脂类商品短线走势的不确定性增强——原本从7月11日开始,我们内心的中心思想是等待期价回落整理到下方某个低点位置悄悄接盘多单,但由于昨日周四盘中期价瞬间的变化,打了我们一个措手不及(不排除丢失了周三低点埋伏多单的机会),对于今天盘面来说,我们依然不能确定油脂商品短线已经完全发生了整理结束后的“反身转折”。若市场真的给我们开了一个小小玩笑,也不怕——-我们还有第二技术操作计划,那就是当期价在下周初上破7月11日高点时候,我们及时多单跟进(反手追涨)虽然错失了低点埋伏的第一良机,但第二种操作也是一种有效的补救措施。具体操作上:本周三建议的部分空单减仓出局后的散户朋友暂时观望,剩余部分散户手中还有空单的散户朋友可于今天适量逢低减持空单。而场外一直处于观望的稳健型交易者,可于下周初当见到美盘豆油12月合约上破7月11日34.44高点之上后,于对应的内盘马盘油脂商品上多单追进,我们这里提前布局下周初操作计划,由于当前短线期价反复变化较突然,希望大家能看懂我们报告中所描述的含义,提前做好准备工作。

[SUMMARY]
• Edible oil markets showed drastic change on Thursday, prompting high uncertainty in the short-term.
• Our original plan of initiating long position after the downward correction had been interrupted.
• At this point, we are not certain if the correction has ended.
• As a result, we may resort to an alternative strategy: go long if the high of July 11 is hit next week.

[ACTION]
• Traders may close-out all short positions and stay out of the market at the moment, or reduce those positions.
• Passive traders who are do not hold position may begin to prepare for next week’s strategy.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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