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Global Markets Analysis – 21 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.06.2016周二 下挫整理疲软行情延续中

美盘豆油12月,震荡式下挫整理,虽然下方空间不会很大,但短线角度的疲软走势延续中。大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,追随性波动震荡下探,回落幅度上棕榈油略大于豆油,在未出现明显止跌信号前,依旧短空思维对待。 马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,下坠式期价走低进入高潮期,期价下跌幅度较大,短线出现下跌加速迹象-未来几天遇盘中急跌时候,逢低空单离场也该纳入具体操作思路中,下跌许久之后也不可再盲目期望下方空间有多大。不贪、不燥、见好就收。

小结:油脂类商品上,周K线图表下方有个60周均线支撑位,该位置是个中线角度的技术支撑拐点,当期价上穿空头排列的均线之后,再回抽下方均线支撑时候,越是靠近下方均线(60周均线是回落支撑的最后一道长线多头防线),短线空单越是需要谨慎。我们中长期大角度的“反转”性质的看多-大思维观点不变。唯一让我们操作上产生变化的是短线操作角度-当前我们主要操作思维是沿着期价运行的轨迹操作,追随期价短暂变化而进行的短线交易模式,这里需要指明的是我们的短线交易是在大周期方向向上的前提下,也就是说大周期套小周期,而小周期是组成大周期的一部分,二者在操作周期上有差别,但不能因为操作周期层次的不同而产生思维混淆-这点对散户朋友操作上来说很重要,需要大家明白我所说的意思。一年当中8月份往往是美国大豆影响到产量变化的重要月份,我们长线角度关注天气情况对全球大豆产量的影响就在这个月份。当前我们仍以短线周期的短空思维对待,暂时不考虑长线操作,短线交易为主流思维-个人观点认为具体操作上:空单继续持有,稳健短线交易者未来几天遇盘中急跌可适量空单逢低离场。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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