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Global Markets Analysis – 21 June 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.06.2017 美盘豆油昨日晚间长阴下挫 反弹结束概率增强

美盘豆油12月合约(或7月),本周一期价在前高位置的一根小阴K线尚不足为惧,但昨日周二晚间的一根长阴K线,瞬间改变了反弹上行节奏,空头主力严密阻击呈现效果(上破前高失败 受阻回落变为现实),美豆油短线再次出现期价下滑可能。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,6月19日周一时候还是阳K线上攻表现,昨日周二盘面受美盘马盘油脂商品走弱影响为中阴下跌表现,在昨日周二晚间美豆油长阴下挫之后,今天周三早盘期价追随性再度下跌,特别是内盘棕榈油表现更为疲软。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,该品种也是周一时分就率先出现高开低走的冲高回落走势(单日的走势尚不能说明问题),可昨日终盘时候又阴中阴K线收盘,今天周三早盘继续低开,这问题就出来了——-马盘棕榈油“供应压力增大,需求转弱”心理担忧情绪开始弥漫。虽然今天马盘棕榈油低开高走红盘表现,但我们前2日的纠结情绪也许会成为现实。

小结:国际原油期价短线持续下跌,昨天晚间再创最近新低(42.94),直接击碎了美盘豆油上攻欲望。而棕榈油供应逐渐增大 需求不振的利空担忧情绪更从另一侧面拖累了棕榈油表现。全球油脂类商品再次出现下挫迹象,通过今日早盘观察—–油脂商品期价下挫成为可能(反弹结束)。虽然我们已经提前2天做了心理准备“一颗红心两手准备”,但昨晚美盘豆油的长阴下跌还是显的比较突然(突然就突然在 下挫的幅度有点大)。操作上:内盘马盘前2日建议的激进敏感型交易者已经减仓的继续平仓,稳健型交易者多单持仓理由开始降低也建议平仓了结——–这里需要说明一点:在小波段行情或 拉锯短线行情下,激进敏感型交易者操作思维模式会占有一定优势,通过快速的平仓兑现,快捷的反手操作,会规避期价短线的不利波动带来的损失,说白了这优势就在于“敏感”二字上。而稳健型交易者在单边大行情中会有很大盈利优势,但却往往在期价剧烈波动的小波段拉锯战中略显迟钝(等真正看清了,也就略晚了一两天),账户上易受损伤。“尺有所长,寸有所短” 二者无法兼顾。我们今天的思路为—– 规避风险第一位,把盈利放在第二位,我们先了结平仓出场,场外暂时观望一下。

[SUMMARY]
• The slide of global crude oil dashes hope for US soybean oil to push further up.
• Meanwhile, strong supply and weak demand are dragging palm oil prices.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may continue to liquidate long positions; passive traders may follow suit.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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