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Global Markets Analysis – 21 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周五 棕榈油9月合约回落50% 到达我们预期的第一目标

大陆油脂商品棕榈油1409合约早盘低开6122开盘,见最低6112后低开高走,当前小阳运行,期价触及到60天线附近(6105),该位置正好是前波上涨的50%位置,(前波上涨800多点,现在回落400点左右)盘面观察,60天线位置对期价短线游一定支撑作用,支撑是否有效还待继续观察。

马盘毛棕榈油表现较强,回落整理幅度没有内盘大,仅仅回落0.382位置,三分之一左右,整体观察内盘 马盘油脂商品,回抽确认过程仍然进行中,盘中仍未出现明显的止跌信号。

美盘豆油从反弹高位下挫回抽确认已经运行了11个交易日,其中连续10连阴,回落过程较为流畅,断崖式整理较为明显,连续下跌11个交易日后,期价已经非常靠近下方的40天 60天线左右,后市该品种在该位置受到支撑的概率非常大。

小结:内盘棕榈油1409合约 马盘毛棕榈油基准6月合约,仍处于整体回落整理过程中,已经运行了9个交易日,随着时间的推移, 虽然盘中并未出现明显止跌信号,但60天线在心理上应该有一定支撑作用(内盘棕榈油9月率先到达),后市下方的空间已经逐步收窄,所以波段短线操作者的短线空单应该开始趋于谨慎了,待盘中出现猛的下蹲动作,前期空单可逢低平仓出局。 回落整理过程逐渐接近尾声,虽不到最完美时候,但开始保持思维上警惕是不会错的。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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