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Global Markets Analysis – 21 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.03.2016 周一 密切关注美盘豆油5月短线角度的后市走势

美盘豆油5月合约,上周五晚间高位十字星收盘与33.38,盘中曾床新高33.70,周四长阳上涨之后的十字星一定要引起我们的注意,今日晚间的走势就显得尤为重要了,千万谨防该十字星演变成“黄昏之星”K线形态。(2016年1月12日与3月2日上升趋势线位置的十字星K线为“早晨之星”这两种概念性质恰好相反),如若今天周一晚间美盘豆油不能继续红盘上涨,我们内心的担忧就会加剧几分,特别是短线操作者更是要保持警惕心态。暂且谨慎中短多看待。

受今天中国股票市场红盘跳空上涨带动,内盘期货市场各类大宗商品普遍红盘表现-包括金属铜、锌、化工类橡胶、PTA;建材类黑色金属螺纹钢、焦炭、玻璃等等。 油脂类商品中豆油与棕榈油 1609主力合约也高位震荡中红盘表现,其短线的上涨动能仍未完结,中长线角度继续以筑大底之后的“反转”上行看待,短线角度略谨慎心态短多看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,在外围国际原油与美盘豆油以及内盘油脂商品普遍上涨带动下,马盘棕榈继续高开高走上行,期价今天周一上午盘再创新高2698令吉。遥想我们去年早期报告中早早就提到过-马盘棕榈油2000令吉特之下价格为典型的空头陷阱,2000附近埋伏多单进场当属最最明智之举。当前马盘棕榈短线反弹上行正处于加速中,在短线角度反弹动能未衰竭前,建议继续短多思维对待。

小结:美国大豆春播工作正在积极准备中,美国农户种植面积意向要等到3月底公布。南美大豆种植国家-阿根廷与巴西的大豆收获季节也在进行中,其中巴西大豆收获面积接近50%左右。在这青黄不接时间段,全球油脂类商品呈现出反弹上行走势,对于这点我们早有心理准备。后期继续关注全球油脂类商品的需求与供应情况,以及消息面情况。技术盘面上继续关注美盘豆油的后续走势情况。当前全球油脂商品短线的反弹上行延续中,我们保持谨慎心态的短多观点不变。个人观点认为操作上:中长线多单继续乐观持有,短线多单谨慎持有,时刻注意美盘豆油走势的变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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