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Global Markets Analysis – 21 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.11.2016 周一 内盘与马盘油脂类商品短线出现走强苗头

美盘原油期价在47.00美元附近震荡,该位置是日K线图表上60天均线位置,若后市冲破该技术阻挡,纽约原油仍有反弹上行空间,我们更倾向上破的可能,后市短线以短多反弹观点对待。

美元指数近期连续10天红盘阳K线反弹上涨,曾创新高101.480,虽然短线的上扬态势还不曾出现变盘信号,但持续的短线上涨之后,要谨防上涨动能衰竭而出现冲高回落现象的发生。

美盘豆油1月合约,上周五晚间中阳K线表现,并且周五的阳K线吞没了周四的下跌阴K线,今天周一亚洲早盘期价继续红盘表现-美盘豆油短线表现上存在转强的可能(今天就是本波回落整理的第21个交易日),跟进我们上周就提前研判的观点,我们密切关注今日晚间美盘豆油是否形成2根错列的阳K线出现。(我们的观点是美豆油独立技术性回落调整的已经相当充分而下方有可能在本周初止跌企稳;届时我们将相对应的在内盘与马盘以逢低多单接盘操作的这么一次机会)

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,内盘在11月14日政策面恐慌下跌之后,随后多个交易日以来震荡消化政策性带来的恐慌情绪(该恐慌是个短暂的心理层面恐慌心态;不会长时间影响商品价格正常的后续走势)。在几天恐慌情绪之后,今天周一早盘,豆油与棕榈油1701合约期价再度出现红盘走强,基本上符合我们的心理预期-建考虑到后期中国大陆12月份前后的植物油在春节前备货,后市期价下跌空间不大,建议少量多单跟进。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,同样在11月14日跳空下跌之后,由于多头的顽强抵抗,致使马棕榈期价依然维持在一个较高高度区间上,我们连续观察了几日,始终期价不曾大幅度下跌。马来西亚棕榈油减产周期的临近,同样不支持后期期价的大幅下跌,我们建议今天可适当少量多单接盘。

小结:前期油脂类商品整体走势略有分化,该局面我们以前报告中早有提及,这里不再复述。美盘豆油隐隐出现止跌企稳的迹象,而大陆内盘的恐慌情绪也得到一定化解,马盘棕榈由于多头的顽强抵抗-几种盘面情绪提醒我们-我们早早预测的逢低多单接盘机会将在本周初出现。观点认为具体操作上:激进型操作者可于今天适量多单埋伏跟进,稳健型交易者可略微观察一半日,待美盘豆油若出现明显的2跟错列上行阳K线之后再多单跟进,个人根据自己的脾气性格与操作模式手法分别对待。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil market showed stabilizing signs while calm returns to China edible oil market sentiment and Malaysia palm oil market remained supportive.

[ACTION]
• Traders with higher risk appetite could open long position due to diligence.
• Traders with lower risk appetite could remain on the sidelines and waiting opportunity to open long position once US soybean oil market showed second consecutive bullish candlestick.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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