Share

Tweet this

Global Markets Analysis – 21 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.10.2014 周二 全球金融市场展望

在全球经济不景气的当前,全球金融市场包括商品期货市场、外汇市场、证券市场均出现不同程度的萎靡。在我们尤为关注的商品期货市场中,国际原油商品影响最为明显,今年后半年(6月份)以来,期价从107美元跌到现在的80美元/桶,近几日才出现短线的止跌企稳,但技术上对80.00整数关口的支撑作用仍需要考验。

有色金属方面 、伦敦铜、伦敦锌在上周初短暂反弹之后,再次出现冲高回落下行走势,均线系统空头排列下的层层压制令有色金属类商品期价积重难返。

美元指数中线角度上来说,前期一直保持震荡盘升走势,仅在进入10月份后,才首次出现回落整理走势,当前的短线回落下滑仍在进行中。

在美元指数出现回落整理的同时,仅有美黄金商品跷跷板作用较为明显,在10月初出现了触底反弹的短线行情,当前黄金市场仍延续短线的小幅走高。两者的反向作用力较为明显。其次反向作用力明显的是在外汇市场中的欧元/美元与英镑/美元,在美元小幅走低过程中,欧元与英镑均有不同程度小幅走高。

我们更为关心的油脂类商品中,美盘大豆与美盘豆油由于季节性压力,当前仍在中线弱势格局下短线角度下挫整理,对美盘豆油12月来说,期价下挫已经再次靠近2014.9.10日前低(31.52)附近,技术上分析,若该位置能有效支撑当前的短线下跌,则有望出现日图表上W底(双重底)形态演绎过程。若9月10日的前低被下破,则表明前9周以来的横盘抵抗整理区间失败,所以当前美盘豆油的走势对其他油脂商品的影响较为严重,我们接下来得焦点就放在美豆油的短线走势上。

在美盘豆油尚在低位抵抗徘徊时,大陆内盘油脂商品中的豆油1501合约,在昨日周一率先下破箱体平台,创出新低5696,昨日我们就曾提到过,该品种在技术形态上已经完全走坏,后市短线上仍有新低可能。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,由于受马政府政策性扶持(零关税),期价在9月初时候触底反弹,随后从5年半来低点震荡盘升,截止到现在仍处于反弹走势当中,仅在美豆油无休止的下跌影响下近几日出现期价下滑,当前强力受支撑于4天线上方,拒绝短线下挫态度较明显,盘面显示在抵抗整理的同时等待美盘豆油下挫寻支撑的完结,属于以时间换空间走势。

小结:油脂商品短线上仍处于下挫整理低位寻支撑过程中,季节性因素影响较重。只有在黎明前的最黑暗时刻过去之后,趋势性长线多单才能进场,在两种中线角度的趋势转换时期,这个大周期的震荡筑底尾声过程显得尤为漫长。因此,趋势性长线交易者继续场外观望。部分短线交易者可继续逢高短空,共同等待本波下蹲之后的新的进场机会。前期提示耐不住油脂商品寂寞而转战到贵金属与黄金上的短线反弹多单可继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock