Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 21 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.10.2015周三 中国股市变盘;内盘油脂短空;马盘棕榈继续观望

今天10月21日周三,临近大豆收割季节尾声,美盘豆油12月合约,期价仍在60天均线位置上下震荡徘徊,短线走势依然很犹豫,以时间换空间模糊走势较为明显,当前美豆油这种两难走势暂忽略。国际原油短线期价下挫中,其中纽约原油日图表上期价上穿60天均线后,当前短线期价正回落测试下方60天均线的支撑力度。

大陆内盘内盘油脂商品中的豆粕1601合约当前期价短线下挫迹象明显,期价已经连续5天下跌。豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约呈抵抗性下挫,虽期价下跌幅度不大,但前期的反弹上行走势盘中已经看不到,操作建议仍以反手的短空观点看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,当前短线走势不规则,本周一高开低走 阴K线,周二低开高走阳K线,今天周三早盘又莫名的跳空高开,盘中存在拒绝下跌的要求。昨天吉隆坡消息:船运调查机构ITS发布数据显示,马来西亚棕榈油出口10月份前20天的出口量为929,837吨,比9月同期的1,067,503吨减少12.9%。在数据利空因素下,马盘棕榈油12月出现上涨,更多的原因是马来西亚令吉特疲软影响,以及印度尼西亚因厄尔尼诺现象棕榈油产量下滑利多因素影响。前期我们在马盘棕榈油操作上一直是建议场外观望,暂停短线交易,这波冲高回落短线行情我们在操作上是基本放弃操作,主要原因就是考虑当前棕榈油短线操作难度太大,并且可操作价值不高,后市马盘棕榈油若能继续发力上行,建议可考虑多单跟进,注意我们每日报告中的提示。

中国大陆股票市场今天周三早盘还在延续反弹上行,中午午盘开盘后突然冲高回落,上证指数出现长阴下跌,盘中变盘迹象明显,短线股票持有者建议逢高平仓出局,以规避后市短线下跌风险。

小结:中国GDP增速不理想,全球大宗商品普遍承压下行。农产品类虽然影响较弱,但在整体大环境下,期价仍有下行风险。观点认为:内盘油脂反手短空操作,马盘棕榈期价大幅度反复,多空主力分歧较大,未形成完整的合力,除非明天短线仍能继续上行发力,才考虑多单跟进。明日若期价再跳回下方,则继续短线观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock