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Global Markets Analysis – 21 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong

21.10.2016 周五 美盘豆油上涨略显乏力 谨慎心态面对当前模糊走势

美豆油12月合约, 本周5个交易日一长阳四横盘表现, 期价短线出现冲高后的短暂停顿现象, 虽然我们中长线继续保持看多观点不变, 但也要防止短线角度的任何走弱迹象的发生。 国际原油期价出现冲高回落态势, 其中纽约原油冲高见52.22美元高点后, 也出现下挫迹象, 谨防国际原油市场拖累美豆油短线走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1701主力合约, 今天周五早盘低开低走, 期价短线下挫, 虽然还没有明确的盘中信号表明短线反弹结束, 但任何的盘中细微变化, 都要引起我们散户朋友的警惕, 今天期价下破了日K线图表上的5日平均价格, 部分短线多单可适量减持一部分多单, 谨防到手的利润再被市场夺回。

马盘毛棕榈油基准01月, 从本周一跳空高开之后, 期价达到一个新高度平台, 但随后接下来的5个交易日, 期价却始终不能继续上攻, 整体呈现横盘下坠状态, 虽然下方的跳空缺口没有被迷补, 但我们还是要保持时刻的警惕心态, 当前马盘棕榈市场成交较为清淡, 市场观望情绪较浓, 是继续上攻还是掉头走弱市场暂时陷入迷茫阶段。

小结:本周初的强势态势后续力量有所减弱, 截止到本周末, 油脂商品各个品种纷纷出现略带疲软迹象, 这一时刻我们更需要保持一份谨慎心态, 通常来讲此时此刻有2种操作模式来应对该局面:1. 在期价上冲过程中逢高多单兑现筹码平仓了结(这是主动进攻型操作策略, 更适合激进型短线交易者)。2.在期价出现疲软苗头的第一时间减仓多单(这是防御型被动防守策略 适合中线交易者)。由于操作思维模式不同交易者脾气性格不同操作周期的不同, 建议散户朋友根据自己的心态习惯可分别对待, 总之我们总要有一种适合自己的操作模式, 方可在市场千变万化中胜出。具体操作建议: 本周油脂商品走势先扬后抑, 期价在上涨过程中市场出现分歧意见,短线走势出现模棱两可迹象, 是短暂停顿一下继续上攻? 还是冲高后回落整理?我们建议“对冲”一下当前的模糊走势, 短线交易者适量多单减持一部分(先把部分多单利润入袋为安) 中线交易者可适当多观察一半日,看看下周初市场如何演绎后再做决定。总之是不能不在操作上弃之不管,任由账户数字自由变化。

• Strong momentum this week is losing steam. Going into the weekend, edible oil products are showing signs of fatigue.
• We shall be cautious at this juncture, with two possible types of trading mechanisms.
• First, ride along the upward momentum and closing-out long positions to take profit (suitable for aggressive short-term traders).
• Or, close-out long positions as soon as the upward momentum shows signs of fatigue (suitable for passive medium and long-term traders).
• A trader may decide which mechanism suits him or her better, depending on the trader’s character and traits.

• Traders are divided by the current trend: a small retracement or a possible reversal?
• Short-term traders may close-out some long positions to secure some profits.
• Medium and long-term traders may observe the market for the second half of the day, before deciding on what to do next week. It is important that traders pay close attention to the market at this point in time.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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