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Global Markets Analysis – 21 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.09.2015 周一 油脂商品短线的反手空单继续持有

美国大豆临近收割期,中西部大豆预计又将丰收,随着收割新豆上市的压力越来越大,美盘黄豆连上周五盘中期价下跌。美豆油12月合约也追随美大豆走低,美盘油脂商品的疲弱走势延续中,后市仍有一定的下探空间。

国际原油市场上周五也出现整体走低。其中美盘原油连期价反弹到日图表上60天均线位置受到技术阻挡,该位置不能上破恐将对美盘原油的后期走势带来不利影响。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,受美盘豆油与美盘原油上周五下跌影响,今天周一早盘跳空低开,盘中虽呈十字星抵抗回落整理,但短线的下探走势已经不可避免,短线仍以短空看待。

吉隆坡消息,有关印度将上调植物油进口关税5%(从7.5%的关税上调至12.5%),这对马来西亚棕榈油的出口带来压力。同时美盘原油与美盘豆油的下跌以及马币令吉特汇率的短线走强均对马盘毛棕榈油期价的下跌带来压力。马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,从9月15日冲高回落开始的短线下跌走势,这几天盘中表现明显,今天周一虽然盘中低开高走小阳K线运行,期价略有走高,但短线的回落整理行情仍进行中。

小结:全球油脂类商品整体下挫,不同品种的重心均有所下移,短线的疲软走势延续中,个人短线角度仍以保守的短空观点对待。观点认为前几日的短线反手空单进场后继续持有, 原中长线多单也继续持有。因操作周期的不同,令当前持仓心态略显尴尬,这也没有办法。油脂商品当前期价的运行轨迹既然如此,我们也只能先以短线角度为主来进行操作,先把眼前的不利风险规避掉,才能更好和更远的考虑将来的行情。尴尬就先尴尬一小段时间吧,建议后市继续关注美盘豆油的短线走势。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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