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Global Markets Analysis – 21 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.09.2016 周三 油脂类商品第三主升浪进行中;后市短线继续看高一线

美盘黄豆连利空消息吸收消化超跌之后的低位反弹上行走势出现转机,后市投资人所关注焦点不排除从大丰收的庞大供给压力转移到强大的需求增长上来,还是我们三天前那句话“利空出尽便是利好”。而美盘豆油12月合约,本周前2个交易日的表现更是抢人眼球,连续2根长阳K线上涨-令短线的小3浪回落调整提前结束(我们原本看低到下方31.00极限位置,而期价只下挫到31.63低点就开始反身上行了),当前美豆油第三大浪的主升浪正在进行中,突破前高点8月23日的34.83是举手之劳的事,待到突破前高之时,后市的上涨空间才将被真正打开,我们继续看高美豆油一线,延续维持我们中长线看多观点不变。

对于马盘毛棕榈油11合约(或基准12月)来说,市场分析人士普遍有一个错误观点:大都认为是外围市场走强才提振了马盘毛棕榈油的短线走高(国际原油、美豆油、内盘油脂的走强提振马盘棕榈油),这其实是一个错误的观点,细心的朋友会从日K线图表上清楚看到,本波短线走势恰恰是由马盘毛棕榈油率先上涨(早在9月19日周一就突破前高点的),2669令吉特一旦被向上突破后,该位置以下的所有空单均处于一个尴尬亏损境界,此刻技术上的向上突破最恐慌的是空头主力-他们在思考是否站错了队伍?所以才有我们昨日把后市上涨高度看高到第二目标2798(2014年3月11日的高点),我们是纯技术性分析得出的结果-而不像其他分析师所讲的马来西亚棕榈油库存极低,达到6年来的新低点,是-我们不否认基本面情况对盘面走势的心理影响,但这种随便找个理由却得不出后市高点在那-昨日马盘毛棕榈油11月上涨高度一举达到2781,距离2014年的前高2798仅仅相差17个点,昨日周二盘中的长上影线,表明短线拔高速度较快,有部分短线多头逢高兑现利润,今天周三盘面恐将出现小阴K线略微调整一下,顺便回补一下昨日的跳空缺口可能。但我们短线的短多观点会保持不变。(其实我们最佳研判的一句话是-“马盘毛棕榈油在2000令吉特以下是空头陷阱,该位置逢低平空而反手多单逢低埋伏!”现在要回味起来当时那种在2000令吉特普遍看空的市场观点是多么的害人;而2000令吉特的多单,放在现在2700以上又会是多大利润)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油主力合约豆油与棕榈油1701,这2个品种才是追随外围市场走强的品种(追随马盘与美盘),并且内盘棕榈油1701合约在短线走势上上涨幅度高于内盘豆油,许久不见的涨停板在昨日周二盘中-在内盘棕榈油1701合约上出现,这给了短线多头无比强大的自信,我们后市继续多单持有,看高一线。

小结:马盘棕榈油率先一马当先技术走强,内盘紧紧跟随,而美盘昨日晚间又给予了强有力的支持,全球油脂类商品普遍强势上涨,我们早先预期的第三大浪的主升浪正在逐步拉开序幕,耐心等待美盘豆油上破8月23日的技术高点,后市短线我们继续短多观点对待。观点认为具体操作上:原中长线老多单乐观持有,本周初新进多单谨慎持有。

[SUMMARY]
• Malaysian palm oil leads the surge, as China’s markets follow.
• Strong US markets yesterday evening boosted global vegetable oil markets.
• We anticipate US soybean oil to break the August 23-high, maintaining a short-term long position outlook.

[OPINION]
• Traders may consider maintaining their medium and long-term long positions.
• Traders should be cautious when entering new long positions this week.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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