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Global Markets Analysis – 21 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


21.09.2017周四继续关注美盘豆油在下方60天均线位置的后续表现

美盘豆油12月合约,在本周二触及到下方60天均线后,连续周二周三2天红盘阳K线表现,今天周四亚洲电子盘截止到目前为阴K线表现——美豆油60天均线的支撑效力尚不完全明确,市场上的多空分歧在逐步增大,我们要做的就是—–继续关注60天均线位置的支撑效力,待市场信号清晰后我们再做出新的决定。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,前几日期价始终“抵抗性”整理,期价下挫幅度不大,盘中多头护盘迹象明显,这主要是中国大陆市场临近“国庆节”“中秋节”双节假期,市场上存在提前备货的乐观心理预期,贸易商不愿意跌价。可由于得不到美盘马盘有力支持,今天周四盘面上,终于阴K线下挫。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(包括11月),本周4个交易日已经连续4连阴,昨日原本预计盘中低开高走的小阳红盘表现,但由于早盘的开盘为高开,因此昨日为高开低走表现—–不管阴K线或者阳K线,当前期价仍在9.19日周二的长阴K线右下角波动震荡,在市场未出现明显的止跌信号之前,我们继续短空观点不变——但仍要保持在本周末下周初,期价会出现红盘反复的谨慎心态(毕竟短线跌幅较大)。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线角度的回落整理走势延续中,在未出现较为明显的止跌企稳信号前,我们继续短空思维对待,但另一个层面,我们也要谨慎美豆油在60天均线位置技术支撑有效,所以适当空单减持仍为明智之举,我个人观点—-美豆油恐将仍会下挫考验下方60天均线的支撑效果,让我们继续关注该位置的技术表现。操作上:减持后的剩余空单谨慎持有。

[SUMMARY]
• Downtrend of global edible oils continues, as a downward correction is in the progress.
• We may pay close attention to US soybean oils, it rebounded after touching a 60-days moving average.
• Our short-term short outlook remains as the market still don’t have any reversal signals.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are holding short positions may retain it but prepare when the prices are low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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