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Global Markets Analysis – 22 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.04.2016 周五 受美盘影响;今日内盘与马盘油脂商品将出现剧烈波动

在美盘黄豆连续反弹上行多日后,期价呈井喷式报复性反弹上行,期价从低位的850美分左右,直线型加速反弹到昨日晚间的1043.75美分高点后出现了冲高回落迹象,终盘美豆以带上影线的小阳收盘,表明美豆在快速冲高过程有部分多头逢高获利减仓迹象。而美盘豆油7月合约,在前期美豆反弹过程中,美豆曾经出现过一个短暂的回落整理过程,后在美豆走高带动下才反身上行,二者在运行节奏是有过不同步现象,美豆油昨日周四晚间也出现了带上影线的阴K线走势,盘中期价出现反复,豆强油弱迹象较为明显,但由于美豆油是先回落整理,确认均线支撑之后才转身反弹上行,因此技术上只要4月19日周二的阳K线不被吞没回去,我们就继续保持反弹上行观点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,从4月18日以来率先出现的反弹上行走势,期价已经连续4连阳红盘运行。受昨晚美盘豆油走势影响,今日内盘油脂商品恐将期价也会出现反复现象,盘内的上下波动迹象不可避免,密切关注今日走势在4月21日周四时候的阳K线右侧的表现-阳包阴?阴包阳?则成为我们今天开盘后关注的焦点。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月合约,近期的期价运行轨迹更为符合我们的预期节奏-该品种前期是8个交易日回落整理,4月15日时候下触40日均线后又反身上行运行了5个交易日,这与我们之前的预测-先回落整理然后再反身上行的预期结果不谋而合。在今日美盘与内盘的表现带动下,马盘棕榈今天周五盘中恐将期价会出现回落波动走势,盘中将出现一定程度的期价下跌,下跌幅度的多少则成为我们今天关注的焦点。

小结:美盘油脂商品期价出现反复,内盘与马盘油脂商品的今日走势恐将收到影响,盘中期价不同程度下跌将不可避免,整体的期价下跌幅度有多大将是我们今天关注的焦点,这将密切影响到我们对后期反弹高度的看法。我们暂且保持谨慎的短线反弹上行观点不变。个人观点认为操作上:前几日建议的逢低接盘多单谨慎持有, 关注今日期价的运行情况。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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