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Global Markets Analysis – 22 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.08.2016 周一 油脂类商品短线走势略有回落

美盘豆油12月合约,上周五盘中期价高开低走,收盘以带下影线的小阴K线收盘,今天周一亚洲电子盘以阴K线表现-在连续多日的反弹上行红盘表现之后,随着期价不断的震荡拔高,短线的上行走势已经出现了超买之后的技术乏力迹象苗头, 近期我们对美盘豆油的后市走势已经做了充分的研判分析预测-后市短线走势上它只会选择其中一条道路(二选一;前面报告中我们已经详细说过,此处不再重复), 对美盘豆油来说-我们继续保持中线角度看多观点不变前提下,对更小周期的短线走势上-我们却需要保持警惕心态,谨防短线走势上的冲高回落行情发生。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,今天周一盘面上也出现高开低走态势,短线上也出现一定程度的期价疲软回落迹象,今天周一盘面上的减仓下行走势-盘口语言告诉我们,在一定程度上存在多头主力逢高减仓动作,此种短线走势已经在我们的预料之中,我们继续关注后市短线期价的走弱力度如何演绎。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在上周四与周五盘面上已经率先出现期价回落迹象,今天周一早盘又高开低走,连续三天的阴K线表现,已经表明马盘棕榈上方存在一定的压力,在连续多日的上涨反弹之后,出现此种现象也比较正常( 盘中任何的多头获利盘涌出以及空头主动的逢高打压均能造成期价回落态势),对马盘棕榈油我们同样保持中线看多基础上的短线冲高回落走势观点,在具体操作上,短线激进型交易者要率先谨防期价回落带来的利润损失风险,能规避的我们尽量要求规避。

小结:全球油脂类商品从8月初以来的反弹上行走势在延续了13个交易日后,由于期价上行速度过快,上涨斜率过于垂直,在凶猛发力到达一定阶段性高度之后,前期盘中低位的短线多头已经获利相当丰厚,此刻盘中的任何风吹草动都能引起盘面上的剧烈波动,我们前几日已经在报告中曾多次提醒散户朋友-要提前注意短多主力的逢高平仓动作的发生,相信部分激进型短线交易者已经早先一步多头主力做出逢高减仓的操作。鉴于当前短线行情走势上-部分多头主力已经出现一定程度上的逢高减仓动作,我们继续建议短线多单风高减仓操作,宁肯错杀一千也不能让我们的利润化为泡影。已经在上周末与本周初短线平仓的朋友,可暂时出场后-端杯茶场外观望一下,手中无单的短线激进型交易者也可适量日内逢高空单进场小试牛刀-但一定要空单日内平仓了结,空单不能太贪-毕竟我们中长线角度是依然看多的,待短线回落整理之后,我们会在后市最恰当时候第一时间再建议多单从新低位进场。 我们一定要把握此种市场节奏走势,不能在市场多空主力争夺中把自己先给迷失了方向。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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