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Global Markets Analysis – 22 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.12.2016 周四 美盘豆油短线回落整理延续中;内盘与马盘油脂商品强势抵抗

美盘豆油3月合约,期价逐步靠近下方60天线附近,前期的回调态势依旧,当前短线角度震荡下挫回抽均线确认整理行情延续中,在整理尾声阶段不排除还有一个急挫动作发生,我们继续以反弹上行之后的回落整理观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,强势整理特征依然较为明显,期价下挫欲望并不强烈,但在美盘豆油的跌跌不休走势影响下,恐内盘油脂商品仍有追随性下挫可能。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,前击日反弹上攻失败后,期价小幅下跌,但盘中下跌欲望也不强烈,盘面上依然看到多头主力的积极护盘动作,但在美盘豆油尚未完全出现调整结束信号之前,马盘棕榈将保持强势的小幅下挫整理走势。

小结:美豆油逐步调整到下方60天均线位置,这是日K线多头排列均线系统的最后一道防线,相信该位置短线多头将出现护盘动作,我们继续保持对美盘豆油短线回落整理观点不变。观点具体操作上:前期内盘与马盘短线反手多单继续持有,下方空间不会很大。部分激进操作者可待随后几天,美盘豆油盘中出现急跌触底时候,在相对应的内盘与马盘油脂商品低价位上再少量接盘多单(以冲抵较高的持仓成本),具体操作我们密切关注美盘豆油未来几天走势。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil falls below 60-day moving average as downward correction continues.
• We maintain our outlook on the short-term downward correction of US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long position on China and Malaysia edible oils, with small downside room.
• Aggressive traders may wait for US soybean oil to fall to a significantly low price, and when China and Malaysia edible oils are attractively low enough, before initiating small amount of long position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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