Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 22 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.12.2017周五美盘豆油3月合约期价下破趋势线成立

美盘豆油3月合约,周三晚间收盘价下破原上升趋势线技术关键位置(但还尚不能完全确定), 周四晚间期价又继续中阴下跌,期价远离趋势线支撑位置——连续两天的阴K线,表明美盘豆油久攻未果情况下,期价下破成立。 看来美豆油要再下一个台阶去积蓄能量(关键技术位置不能充分调动起做多热情),美盘豆油弱势疲软看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约(1801),在美盘油宣告下破走势之后,空头主力完全举手投降,盘中多头止损盘大量涌出,空头主力更是趁机打压期价, 盘中下挫加速迹象明显,下探观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月(或2月),上周末时分原本一根长阳K线宣布反弹序幕拉开,但随后的本周行情—–在美豆油下破成立以及内盘油脂商品加速下跌悲观情绪带动下,马盘棕榈也跟随下挫,短线形成超跌之后的更猛烈多杀多局面,多头主力溃不成军。

小结:中国最新消息:从2018年1月1日起,中国进口美国大豆的杂质比不能超过1%,其中主要杂质是农田里的野草种子,此前中国进口大豆杂质为2%左右, 进口条件的苛刻令美国人大卫不安,美国方面认为中国此举可能会减少进口美国大豆(成本增加),或转为更多进口南美巴西 阿根廷大豆。 美盘大豆 美盘豆油闻讯急挫下跌—–美豆油3月合约就是此时下破的上升趋势线位置。 美盘豆油技术下破走坏后,又带动内盘 马盘油脂商品走弱,昨日 今天两天盘面上恐慌性的多杀多局面明显,减仓下行—-为多头止损出逃。我们昨天早盘就提前预警——建议开盘时候就短空进场操作,就是谨防美盘豆油一旦真的走弱下破情况下,对账户出现不利局面——已经双向“锁仓”的稳健型交易者继续锁仓对待, 部分激进型昨日空单未平仓干净的交易者,若今天内盘 马盘油脂商品的 下影线较长情况下,可继续平空。。。我个人认为多头主力止损出局后,盘面的杀跌动能也会随之大幅减弱, 当前这种快速下跌的局面不会持续太久,后市短线空单获利盘的止盈出局就会把盘面抬高,因此上我们操作建议是: 被套多单暂不盲目止损, 与短线空单形成对锁,关注下周初的市场表现

[SUMMARY]
• More stringent specifications for U.S. soybean imports in China, the top global buyer, added to the bearish headwinds for soybeans. U.S. shipments to China as of Jan. 1 will be required to have reduced foreign material content to expedite unloadings, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday.
• US soybeans eased about 0.7 percent while US soybean oil was down 1 percent to break below support uptrend line.
• The downtrend of US soybean oil continues, causing China and Malaysia edible oil followed to move downward.
• The market is expected to rebound as the oversold condition has occurred in the market.

[ACTION]
• Defensive traders may retain spread positions and pay close attention to the movement of US soybean oil market.
• Aggressive traders liquidate long positions if China and Malaysia edible drop sharply today.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock