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Global Markets Analysis – 22 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.02.2016 周一 油脂类商品中长线筑底;短线谨慎态度

美盘豆油5月,上周五晚间阴K线下跌,期价仍处于-上有前高阻挡而下有均线支撑的上下两难地界,美盘豆油后市短线角度的不确定性在增强,在前高位置屡攻不下情况下,恐后市短线将对多头不利,继续关注美盘豆油5月的表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605合约,今天周一早盘平开小幅走高红盘表现,盘中受中国证券市场证监会主席换任利好预期带动出现上涨(原证监会主席肖刚卸任;中国农业银行董事长刘士余接任),其他商品橡胶化工类、有色金属铜与锌、黑金属螺纹钢、焦炭、玻璃等待品种均有不同程度上涨,油脂类商品维持前期短线角度的反弹上行态势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,当前短线走势震荡徘徊,期价整体变化不大,这与马来西亚当前国内的基本面分不开-棕榈油产量预期下降、需求不振出口量低迷、总库存量逐步降低、令吉特疲软以及各种利多和利空消息纠结在一起,形成当前马棕榈5月当前这种横盘震荡式运行,在外围油脂商品周边市场不明朗情况下,马盘棕榈油走势较为谨慎。

小结:在全球油籽整体供应庞大,国际原油价格低迷大前提下,油脂类商品当前表现左右为难。我们继续保持中长线与长期角度下的筑大底观点不变前提下,对短线角度的短线交易保持谨慎态度,仍暂以短线操作为主。观点认为中长线长期多单略微乐观持有。短线角度多单谨慎持有,盘中万一出现不利情况,我们则第一时间止盈或止损出局,暂以短多观点谨慎对待。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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