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Global Markets Analysis – 22 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.02.2017 周三 美盘豆油“底背离”下跌 内盘 马盘“超跌性”跟随

美盘豆油5月合约,当前期价下挫到33.20一线,在我们老早的预期计划中—-33.00—33.50之内是我们低位多单埋伏点,当前期价已经进入这个范畴。美盘豆油5月当前运行在下跌第5小浪中,这是下挫整理的最后一浪,在其后将有一个反弹过程,理论上讲我们应该适量多单在对应的内盘 马盘油脂商品上埋伏了—–但由于此前一周过早的多单进入,造成我们此刻的局面略显被动与谨慎(不见美盘豆油低位的一根长阳 或者长下影线 内心还是略有不安 不敢急于再盲目操作)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1705主力合约,当前短线追随性跟随美盘下挫,盘中已经明显出现超跌迹象,但由于美盘豆油仍未见明显止跌信号,我们也不得不更为谨慎些。今天周三盘面上出现了阴阳十字星K线,表明此前杀跌动能以有所缓解。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,上周五,本周一,本周二连续3天的紧急杀跌,期价下挫幅度较大,这3天的加速下跌释放了一些利空动能。今天周三盘面期价小阳K线表现,下跌力量略有减弱。

小结:美豆油中线角度的持续疲软严重影响到内盘 马盘油脂商品的短线走势,虽然美豆油出现“底背离”信号—但未见到美豆油更明确的(长阳 长下影线)信号前,我们尚不能完全下决心低位多单埋伏,我只能说低位接多单的时机越来越靠近了,为了更好的把握此“节点” 就需要我们更有耐心 更谨慎些(毕竟我们手里已有部分被套多单)。操作上:前期被套多单继续持仓不动,思维上时刻准备更低位的多单接盘机会把握,密切关注美豆油的分秒秒表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continues to show medium-term fatigue, adversely affecting the short-term trend of China and Malaysia edible oils.
• Until we see bullish indicators on US soybean oils, we shall not be totally committed to going long.
• We shall patiently wait for a better opportunity and lower prices to initiate more long positions.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold onto their long positions, as they wait for lower prices to add their long holdings.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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