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Global Markets Analysis – 22 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.01.2016 周五 内盘与马盘油脂商品大幅波动,期价出现异常的反复情况,但未得到美盘的支持

美盘豆油3月合约,昨日晚间期价红盘十字星表现,今天周五亚洲电子盘依旧红盘小阳表现。从盘面上观察-仍不温不火,波澜不惊的重心上移中,盘中没有出现丝毫的短线下跌迹象,小幅震荡爬升短线行情延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,昨天周四盘中却出现了异动,在对美盘豆油短线走势失望情绪下,昨日在多头主力昏昏沉沉中,空头主力突然发动袭击,盘中疯狂打压期价,特别是在棕榈油1605合约上一度令期价下跌到60天均线下方,昨日的内盘油脂商品表现以空头主力完胜收盘。今天周五早盘,豆油与棕榈油1605合约的多头主力才猛然从睡梦中惊醒,在多头发力护盘以及空头减仓盘双重力量下,期价低开高走,昨日被空头占领的失地得以收复,昨天和今天的盘面表现上完全是惊人的逆袭。用三个字表达对这种局面的不满“逗你玩”。昨日对于这种突发走势,我们曾建议在豆油上多单不变而在棕榈油上平多反空-形成一多一空的跨品种套利操作,以规避期价下破60天均线的不利情况对账户带来的损失。从今天周五的盘面情况来分析,今天还得改变昨日的操作,短线的空单必须平仓出局。因期价又站上60天均线上方。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,昨日周四盘中也同样发生异常不利情况,在受国际原油下跌悲观情绪影响,以及大陆内盘的盘面异动,也给马盘棕榈油带来盘面上的恐慌情绪,昨日周四盘中,基准4月合约低开低走中阴暴跌,期价下挫到60天均线下方也一度触及到我们设置的止损位附近,我们昨日也曾建议中长线的多单与短线的反手空单,形成跨周期的锁仓操作。而今天周五盘中,马棕榈又跳空高开于60天均线附近,昨天被空头占领的失地又部分收回,这种异常短线期价反复波动走势又不得不让我们减持昨日的反手空单。

小结:美盘豆油短线角度依旧波澜不惊的震荡小幅走高(并没有支持内盘与马盘的昨天走势)。而大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品昨日盘中出现异常大幅期价波动,昨日与今天的盘面上多空主力争夺激烈,一场不见血的玩命厮杀进行中,鉴于今天周五的盘面表现,在昨日的失地被收复后,我们操作上也只能被动的跟随逆向操作。个人建议具体操作上:中长线原老多单持仓不动。而短线的昨日激进型操作者平多反空的反手操作,今天建议平空反手再次接回平掉的多单。昨日周四内盘与马盘的表现给我们散户朋友开了个天大玩笑,我们只能跟随盘面变化及时改变我们的操作手法。建议后市继续关注油脂商品在60天均线位置的表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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