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Global Markets Analysis – 22 June 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.06.2017 周四 油脂商品反手短空操作 日内平仓了结

美盘豆油12月合约,本周初在前高附近上攻受阻,6月20日周二的一根长阴K线瞬间终止了反弹上行走势,当前期价短线下跌——-很早以前(6月初低位时候)我们就本波反弹定义为“弱势反弹”,现在回过头来看,当时的定义还是较为中肯而明智。唯一出乎意料的是本周二当天的长阴K线的下跌幅度(有点过猛),因此上多单平仓未完全抢到高点上——说明当前行情为小波段短线震荡行情(非单边行情),市场上存在多空绞杀情绪(杀完空头,杀多头,无论多空一律绞杀),此种行情谁腿快谁占便宜,更适于超短线交易者。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,追随美盘波动震荡,行情走势呈现“短暂而急促”盘面特征,鉴于美盘豆油短线下挫走势已经相当明显,反弹上行信号结束后,以短空观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,前几日跳空高开反弹上行—-周一冲高回落 —-前日周二延续中阴下跌—-昨日周三低开高走抵抗,马盘棕榈油多空转换频率较快,市场情绪波动较大,我们建议把小波动操作的周期更为缩短一些——改为日内操作,同时关注美盘豆油下挫的空间。

小结:美盘豆油周二一根长阴K线宣布反弹结束,后市期价将保持震荡下挫态势,下挫空间大小尚待观察。今日在内盘马盘油脂类商品上建议多单出局后的反手短空操作,操作周期人为变短一些——建议逢高短空尽量日内平仓(超短交易,见好就收),实在未平仓了结最多空单可持仓2个晚上,急跌之后谨防多头主力盘中抵抗。本周末下周初,我们把关注焦点转为——– 期价下挫空间有多大上来?我个人主观认为后市下方应该不会有多大空间。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil remains in downtrend, as the rebound comes to an end.
• Our focus now shifts to the extent of the downtrend.

[ACTION]
• Traders of China and Malaysia edible oils may go short after closing-out long position, but are advised to square-off by day-end.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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