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Global Markets Analysis – 22 May 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


5.22周四 美盘大豆出现上涨

昨晚,美盘大豆长阳上涨报收,期价在60天线处受到支撑,今早盘期价已脱离横盘整理的上沿,后市出现走强迹象。美盘豆油昨晚虽也红盘报收,但涨幅要远弱于美大豆,美豆油的下蹲动作是否完结,尚待美豆油出现错列的第二根阳K线来给出结论,当前的技术观察,这种情况概率大增。

大陆内盘豆粕受美盘大豆上涨带动,今天早盘跳空高开,依旧延续前期震荡盘升走势,并且出现加速迹象。内盘油脂商品、豆油、棕榈油1409合约周四早盘也同样出现高开,是否下蹲结束也需验证。

马盘毛棕榈油日图表均线系统空头排列,前几天反弹受阻后,出现下挫整理,当前期价受5日均线压制,下蹲动作是否结束也不明朗。

小结:美盘大豆出现上涨,带动内盘豆粕上扬,豆类商品继续保持前期反弹走势,反而油脂类商品走势就略显模糊。昨天报告中我们有提到,本波下蹲动作下方的空间不是很大,下蹲动作的发生原因是均线压制下的反弹受阻后的被动动作,其目的是再次下行寻找新支撑点,再次凝聚做多人气。个人看法是建议激进操作者反手做空,日内了结,不建议持仓过夜,其目的就是要防止这种跳空的发生。对于稳健操作者来说,多单止损后,当下方回落下蹲空间不明朗的时候,先平仓认赔出局,在场外观望等待再次进场机会。当短线油脂商品若出现走强新拐点,我们会及时通知多单进场机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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