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Global Markets Analysis – 22 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.05.2015 周五 以静制动态度关注当前的短线回落整理

国家粮油信息中心5月22日消息,近期进口大豆到港量维持增长态势,港口库存增至350万吨以上,较一周前增加50万吨。不过仍低于去年同期的400万吨以上水平,预计5月下旬大豆到港进度将持续加快。棕榈油方面,当前国内各港口棕榈油库存为40万吨左右,与一周前持平,其中天津港库存12万吨,张家港近7万吨,广州港8万吨。比较以往同期国内库存量-2014年棕榈油库存为118万吨,2013年为135万吨,2012年为91万吨。当前国内棕榈油库存为5年来的低位水平。

美盘大豆近期短线呈震荡下行走势,期价下挫明显重心以波峰波谷状下移,短线的疲软较为明显。首美盘大豆期价下滑影响,美盘豆油也短线下跌,但豆油的整体走势强于大豆,属于重心上移,二者的短线走势是不相同的。建议后市仍对美盘豆油待调整结束后重心上移持乐观态度。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油 1509主力合约,当前期价运行也呈现重心上移过程中,盘中的波峰波谷上行走势较为明显,近几日虽期价有所下跌,但只要波谷不再低于前低波谷,则继续对后市看好。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月合约,当前短线走势属于下跌之后的横盘震荡走势,虽然盘中未出现明显的上涨,但期价继续围绕60天线处积蓄能量,日图表上均线系统存在粘合迹象,若本波整理不破前低,后市仍存上攻欲望。

纽约原油昨日晚间小阳上涨,期价重新站回5天均线之上,震荡盘升小幅走高态势依旧,继续保持对美盘原油后市持续走高的良好预期。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线上出现期价下探回落整理走势,但盘中多头抵抗性护盘依旧明显,当前的下滑整理尚未完全结束,个人继续保持对盘面的密切关注。个人认为反弹之后的短线回落整理仍在正常范畴内,中长线油脂多单继续持有,不被外界干扰。短线激进型多单,前几日提到适当减持,待回落后再逢低接回,此操作手法保持不变。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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