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Global Markets Analysis – 22 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.05.2017 周一 美盘豆油矫正修复过程 马盘棕榈油创新高

美盘豆油7月合约,上周五晚间红盘中阳上涨,矫正修复上周四的中阴K线下跌,今天周一亚洲电子盘期价仍维持在前高附近徘徊震荡。美豆油短线期价出现反复波动,处于上下两难境界—-下面有短期均线支撑,上面有60天均线压制,美豆油反弹上行一段时间后短线的走势较为模糊而纠结,美盘豆油市场人心不稳。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,上周四周五2个交易日期价短暂下挫,今天周一上午盘又追随美盘走高—–内盘“影子形”追随美盘波动,盘中棕榈油仍旧强于豆油。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,由于马来西亚市场对棕榈油出口数据良好预期提振棕榈油近期表现—–马棕榈从前期低点(4月20日左右)酝酿低位“拐点”之后,已经反弹上行一个月时间,今天周一早盘又跳空高开(鹤立鸡群 一马当先),创出近期新高点,马盘毛棕榈油惯性上冲急涨延续中。从当前期价来说:无论是我们更早时候的被套老多单,还是上月低点位置新进多单,均处于解套或盈利阶段—-本波马棕榈油超跌之后的“低位对勾式反弹走势”表现最为良好。

小结:国际原油市场当前短线反弹走势强劲,虽然美盘豆油走势有些不尽人意的地方,但马盘棕榈油表现最为耀眼,而内盘油脂影子般追随——三地油脂商品短线走势力度 幅度略有分化,而我们的操作思维是尽量走“中庸”之道,不求最低也不求最高,更不走极端模式,我们在谨慎看多整体油脂商品的前提下,继续延续逐步批量逢高减仓操作模式,已经平仓了结的朋友也不必惋惜未平仓在最高点,永远记住只有更高,没有最高—–往往最高之后的瞬间就是下挫整理的开始。已经平仓了结的散户朋友暂时场外观望。

[SUMMARY]
• Global crude oil markets stage sharp short-term rebound; Malaysia palm oil and China edible oils post strong performance while US soybean oil disappoints.
• The movement of edible oils in US, China and Malaysia diverge in the short-term.
• We maintain a long position outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may close-out some long positions when prices are high.
• Traders who have liquidated all positions may stay on the sidelines.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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