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Global Markets Analysis – 22 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.11.2016 周二 美原油与美豆油走强;内盘与马盘植物油商品多单持有

国际原油市场由于对OPEC 欧佩克成员国消减产量计划重燃信心,国际原油价格出现走强。昨日周一晚间纽约原油连中阳上涨,期价一举突破60天均线的技术阻挡(47.00美元),当前期价已经上冲到48.70一线,我们短线继续看好美原油的后续表现。

美元指数昨日周一晚间中阴下跌,连续暴涨之后的短线冲高回落终于出现痕迹, 这也符合我们昨日报告中的预期,后市美元指数在高位震荡之后存在,回落整理的下挫修复走势要求,届时-美元的走低,全球大宗商品上行压力会得到减轻。

美豆油1月合约,前期我们早早就预测,本波回落调整将在下方的60天均线处得到技术支撑,果然不出我们所料,美豆油在下方60天均线处止跌企稳(上周五11月18的阳包阴K线初露止跌企稳苗头),而昨日周一晚间的再度中阳上涨-悄然形成2根错列的反身上行态势,后期的短线反弹行情正在酝酿中,我们从今天起以短多思维看待美盘豆油后续表现。

国内方面-各大超市与商场,元旦与春节豆油提前备货阶段开始展开,中国居民对植物油的消费量以每年3-5%刚性需求增长,豆油需求旺盛。虽说棕榈油由于季节性因素消费量不如夏季那么旺盛,但国内仅有的25万吨棕榈油总库存实在是显得紧张,这在一定心理程度上将支持国内棕榈油后期价格。期货市场豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,昨日周一盘中又是率先出现走强的品种(早于美盘一个晚上),在昨日盘中我们就提前建议激进型交易者可率先多单及时跟进,后市期价存在反弹上行机会。

马来西亚方面-从12月1日开始,将对运输及工业行业执行更高的生物柴油掺混率,这将大大提升马来西亚棕榈油国内总需求。自从进入11月份以来,马来西亚棕榈油产量已经进入到季节性减产周期,我们完全有理由相信马来西亚与印度尼西亚2大棕榈油产销大国的国内总库存会处于一个历史极低水平,这一有利局面将支持后期与期货市场的棕榈油表现。昨日周一盘中,马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,早盘开盘跳空高开,追随内盘油脂商品走强,终盘以阳K线收盘,在内盘与美盘周边市场整体走强提振下,我们相信后市马棕榈油仍存在期价上涨的机会(我们暂且不去研判上涨的高度),昨日开盘跟进多单的散户朋友可多单继续持有。

小结:美豆油止跌企稳信号终于出现,一直以来,关注我们报告的朋友应该知道,在美盘豆油止跌企稳第一时间,在对应的内盘与马盘油脂商品上埋伏与跟进多单, 是我们这波操作早早就建议执行的操作模式。当前多单跟进时机悄然出现-操作上: 短线多单今日仍可逢低进场埋伏,昨日已进多单继续持有,后市我们以短线的反弹上行观点看待油脂商品后续走势。

[SUMMARY]
• The drop in US soybean oil finally shows sign of easing.
• Those who follow our commentaries may be aware of our strategy in the event US soybean oil stops falling: initiate long position in China and Malaysia edible oils.
• The window of opportunity to go long emerges.

[ACTION]
• Traders may enter into short-term long positions at low prices.
• Traders may maintain long positions initiated in the previous day.
• We shall observe the market for a short-term upward reversal.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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