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Global Markets Analysis – 22 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong



马盘毛棕榈油基准2月(或1月),本周一跳空低开加速杀跌,盘中跌幅较大—–这主要受到来自印度利空消息,印度将食用油进口关税上调(保护印度本国食用油压榨企业的生存空间 ),将毛棕榈油进口关税从15%上调到30%,精炼棕榈油从25%上调到40%——这组数值创十几年新高( 印度国内保护主义有所抬头)。 这对印度尼西亚马来西亚棕榈油出口形成严重利空影响,我个人保守估计,上调进口关税后,印度恐将每月减少15万吨左右棕榈油进口。马盘棕榈油经过周一快速下跌来吸收消化该利空消息影响, 昨日周二盘才略有企稳,1月合约以十字星“金针探底”表现,基准2月以小阳K线的“早晨之星”表现——这2颗关键位置的关键技术信号也要引起我们的警惕。此刻马盘尚未开盘,请马盘散户朋友注意下面的操作建议总结。

小结:美盘豆油尚未出现的下探整理结束信号,但内盘马盘油脂商品却隐隐暴露出一些止跌苗头,令我们对下方回落空间不再看很深,在越来越被收窄的压缩空间尾声,我们首先在操作上保持一定的谨慎心态(谨防利空出尽便是利情况的发生)。具体操作上:内盘豆油棕榈油上前期空单今日剩余空单全部平仓出局,严格执行我们上周末时间就制定的操盘计划—–本周初分批量分价格逢低点空单离场(今天已经周三,本周初的含义就是指 周一 周二 周三 而周四 周五我们一般是以周末文字来论述)。对于马盘棕榈油1月合约上的前期空单操作,由于马棕榈油1月近期期价下跌幅度较深,盘中空单获利盘巨大,我们更要时刻防止获利盘的突然涌出而造成的账面盈利缩水(看多不看多后市不要紧,但我们先空单出来,不能让到手的鸭子再飞掉),马盘空单今日全部平仓兑现了结。平仓完毕后,稳健型交易者暂时场外安心观望,而对于内心不安静的部分激进型交易者,可部分多单反手逢低接盘试仓,但试盘仓位不能太大。来轻仓验证市场是否出现低位拐点出现,散户朋友可根据自己的脾气性格,操盘手法自己划分自己为稳健型?激进型?然后方可试盘操作。

• Downtrend of US soybean oil continues, as a downward correction is in the progress.
• We have changed our market outlook as China and Malaysia edible oils began to rebound.
• Traders who are holding short positions have to be more cautious as the market might reverse soon.

• Traders who are holding short positions in China soybean oil and palm oil market may liquidate all positions when the prices are low.
• In Malaysia palm oil, traders are strongly advised to take profit and close-out all short positions today as the market had dropped sharply in the past few days.
• After closing-out all positions, conservative traders may be patience and wait for another market signals. However, aggressive traders may initial long positions when the prices are low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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