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Global Markets Analysis – 22 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.10.2015 周四 油脂市场发生微妙变化;做多人气从新凝聚中;追随市场变化多单跟进

忽如一夜春风来,当前谷物市场分析人士的关注焦点发生了新的变化。前期一直是从供应角度炒作大豆市场,近2天开始转为一直被市场所忽略的需求角度看问题了。这种转变是个可喜变化。市场人士发现,虽然中国GDP增速放缓,但中国需求远没有市场所担忧那样情况恶略。在中国需求较为强劲下提振了谷物市场表现。昨晚美黄豆连与美豆油12月双双上涨,一举扭转了前几日的颓废走势,其中美豆油12月合约,连续2天的中阳红盘上涨,期价在下方60均线处支撑明显,再做多人气凝聚下,后市开始出现上行走强要求。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,在前4,5天的短暂期价下挫之后,今天周四早盘期价追随美盘豆油走强态势而高开高走,前几日短线的回落整理行情恐将结束,在市场需求强劲影响下,后市存在逐步走强机会。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日周三的跳空高开,瞬间令短线盘面出现新的变化,盘口技术语言提示后市马棕榈期价走强欲望高涨,不排除从新恢复前期反弹上行的可能。

小结:中长线角度我们对油脂类商品观点依然保持永恒不变的“大幅下跌之后的震荡筑大底观点”。后市在历史低位区域反转向上是我们一直所预期的。这期间的任何短线角度的期价下挫,都是我们逢低进多的机会。因此认为在操作思维上尽量回避了短线回落过程中的短空机会,更多的操作理念主要放在回落整理结束后的逢低买入进场观点上。最近几日,市场投资人士的炒作理念发生新的变化,市场正逐步从供应炒作转为需求炒作上来,(供应炒作属于利空性质;需求炒作属于利多性质;二者性质属性是不同的)。在市场操作理念发生重大转变的前期阶段,在市场人气被凝聚激活之前,正是我们逢低埋伏的大好机会。观点认为:美盘豆油出现走强迹象,内盘油脂豆油与棕榈油1601合约,今天平空翻多,迅速追随市场新的变化转为多单持仓。马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,前期一直场外观望的散户操作者,今天周四盘中建议阴K线逢低买入,多单进场。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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