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Global Markets Analysis – 22 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.09.2016 周四 马盘毛棕榈油领头羊的地位不容忽视,继续短多思维对待

美盘豆油12月合约,本周初2根长阳K线上涨之后,昨日周三晚间盘面“长阳K线”右侧小阴K线调整,快速反身拔高之后的小幅整理早在我们预料中,这属于正常走势,在临近8月23日前高位置,出现该走势当属正常,我们等待今日晚间的两阳夹一阴的“冲天炮”预备动作的发生,后市美豆油短线调整前高34.83仍是我们所期望的,继续保持短多思维。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,在美盘豆油尚未技术突破前高之前,内盘油脂商品继续保持高位震荡等待走势,多头主力仍牢牢控制是市场盘面节奏,我们多单继续持仓不动。

马盘棕榈油基准12月,在9月20日周二跳空高开之后,昨日与今日期价小幅走低, 但整体期价仍在跳空缺口上方徘徊,也在等待美盘的后市指引跟支持,整体来说-马盘棕榈短线走强的领头羊低位仍在保持,马来西亚方面当前146万吨的极低库存,远低于去年同期的250万吨水平。而中国大陆方面棕榈油5年平均库存为69.63万吨,而当前中国国内却仅仅只有30万吨的水平,这对棕榈油市场的领头羊低位绝对称得上是一个有利支持。我们短多观点保持不变。

小结:美联储9月份加息预期减弱,美元指数恐将下挫,全球大宗商品上行压力则减轻,对油脂类商品来说-美盘原油、美盘豆油、短线的反弹上行走势动能充沛,我们继续保持反弹上行观点不变。观点认为操作上:中长线多单继续持有,短线多单也继续持有,不被一半天的阴K线走势所干扰,继续短多观点对待。

[SUMMARY]
• Case for Fed’s rate hike weakens, resulting in Dollar Index drop.
• Pressure on global commodities eases, giving US crude oil and soybeans sufficient momentum to advance.
• Outlook on upward reversal remains strong.

[OPINION]
• Traders may maintain short, medium, and long-term long positions, and not be influenced by the decline of the past day and a half.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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