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Global Markets Analysis – 23 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.04.2015 周四 油脂商品短线走势依旧模糊

美豆油7月合约,昨日晚间阴K线下跌,今天周四亚洲早盘又阳K线上涨,已经连续六个交易日横盘震荡,短线上走势较为模糊(日K线图表)。从更长期角度来观察,当前美盘豆油依然在长期上升趋势线的支撑位置处横盘震荡(月K线图表 30.00位置),长期震荡筑大底,酝酿大拐点的长线行情仍进行中,当前的短线走势尚不能体现出长线的筑大底行情结束信号。恐后市走势仍需要时间来积蓄人气或消息面大的转变。(等待后期天气炒作)

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,已经连续7个交易日从前低位置反弹上扬,内盘在期价短线上行过程中成交量有所放大,低位接盘多单较为踊跃,市场短线看多人气较为高涨,但未得到美盘与马盘的有力支持,不知后市是否会出现上行动能衰竭的情况发生。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月合约,当前仍受阻于上方60天均线处,期价在本周二时候触及到60天线后(日图表上),近2日期价又出现快速滑落,短线走势不稳定,后市尚需美盘豆油与美盘原油的具体指引。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势不清晰,中长期上升趋势线位置的大的震荡行情仍延续中, 大观点上继续保持酝酿筑大底观点不变前提下,对油脂商品的短线走势先略微看淡一些,同时减少频繁短线操作,后市密切关注美盘豆油日图60天线上方运行?还是要回到60天线下方运行?个人观点认为前期接盘多单继续持有,美豆油短线若下破60天线,部分多单可先减仓出局。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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