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Global Markets Analysis – 23 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.08.2016 周二 油脂类商品短线回落整理走势延续中

美盘原油连续昨日周一晚间中阴下跌收盘,阴吞阳走势明显,短线反弹后的的回落整理继续显露。美盘豆油12月合约,在前期连续反弹上行之后,近2日也同样出现下挫整理迹象苗头,短线走势上符合我们的心理预期,我们继续建议短线交易者以规避回落风险为主。

中国大陆方面-国家粮油信息中心8月23日监测消息:6-7月份国内进口大豆到港量不及预期,也低于去年同期水平,前段时间由于压榨利润不理想以及国内大豆抛储影响,当时国内各大油厂采购大豆不积极,虽然近期买货量有所增加,但8-11月份港口到货量仍然会维持在一个较低水平,我们中长线角度继续保持看多观点不变。从内盘期货市场油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约短线走势上观察-内盘油脂商品短线角度也存在期价下挫走低迹象,虽然当前回落幅度不是很大,但我们继续保持短线的回落整理观点(回抽均线)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在连续三根阴K线之后,今天周二盘面期价低开高走,虽然今天表现为红盘走势,但期价短线的下挫走势也是非常明显,我们对马盘毛棕榈油给予“强势整理” 观点看待,密切关注后市盘中的回落幅度。

小结:全球油脂类商品在前期反弹上行之后,近几日出现短暂的期价下挫迹象,我们预测中的回落整理走势序幕拉开,接下来我们的目光焦点主要放在回落空间的大小上-由于中线角度我们的观点仍然是中期看涨,因此上对本波的短暂回落以强势主动回落整理观点看待-就如同向前奔跑前先主动身体下蹲一样,待后期从新积蓄做多能量后,我们再从新多单进场。观点认为具体操作上:多单逢高平仓了结出局后的短线交易者场外观望,中长期角度的交易者由于操作周期层面上的不同,在能容忍短线期价下滑风险的前提下多单继续持有。另外一部分的激进型日内交易者可逢高短空交易,但日内持仓仓单不过夜,尽量日内平仓了结,共同关注后市短线的回落空间。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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