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Global Markets Analysis – 23 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.08.2017周三上涨速率过快上涨幅度过猛谨防油脂商品短暂的回落整理

美国农作物巡查小组正在美国中西部地区进行为期4天的巡查工作,从当前对美大豆巡查公布的不利结果来看,引发了市场投资人士担心美大豆产量不及官方估计的担忧情绪。美盘黄豆连回落整理到前低位置后,期价受到支撑,开始出现低位反弹迹象苗头。另外,美国商务部昨日周二晚间传出消息—–初步提议将对印尼和阿根廷进口的生物柴油分别征收50%与60%的进口关税。该消息若能兑现将对美盘豆油呈现严重利好。美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间“5连阳”期价反身上涨,今天周三亚洲电子盘更是大幅跳空高开,期价上涨至7月28日前高点附近,短线角度的上行态势较为明显,并且初步显露加速迹象。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日周二盘面中阳上涨,期价上破前期横盘整理“上沿”的技术压力阻挡,期价依托下方均线系统的支撑,短线的震荡爬升延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在连续“四连阳”上涨过后,期价上涨到前高点的技术压力位置时候,原本我们预计在前高位置震荡反复一下,小幅整理夯实之后,期价更能有力度上涨。可昨日马盘棕榈油的表现为延续5连阳上涨,仅仅是只想一个上影线的回落动作就能一笔带过“整理”(不现实)——从马盘棕榈油的昨日表现来看,存在上破前高点之后的盘面“加速”动作,但昨日的上影线已经暴露出些许短多获利盘的减仓动作,未来2天的小阴K线的整理不可避免。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线反身上行走势延续中,由于短线的反身动作迅捷,并且期价在上涨幅度上步伐略大了一些(理论上,若略微整理之后再继续上行则维持时间可略长一些/ 若持续加速,拒绝回头调整,则反弹的时间将可能缩短)。其实反弹上行也就不可能一直是阳K线加速状态,不经过小阴K线的整理,根基是不牢固的。我们今日保持短线反弹上行过程中 短暂回落整理观点,整理之后我们继续看高一线。具体操作上:前期反手多单继续持有,谨慎对待盘面上的小幅整理动作。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils rebounded and continuing its uptrend at the moment.
• The markets moved upward consecutively for a few days, which might have a retracement before those markets move upward again.
• We hold short-term short outlook as downward correction is expected to begin.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are holding long positions may retain those positions but be cautious in the downward correction of the markets.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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