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Global Markets Analysis – 23 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.12.2014周二 马盘棕榈异动走强;美盘与内盘疲软

疲软的国际原油价格,对全球影响巨大,美国国内页岩油企业已经受到极大冲击。日前美国页岩油生产商“大陆资源”宣布:消减明年的资本支出计划,并打算将明年的油井开采数量减少40%。这表明连续的原油价格暴跌势头已经令美国页岩油生产商有所退缩。我们所不确定的是石油输出国组织是否对此成效感到满意。另外需要补充的是,当前的原油价格已经不再是单纯的经济概念,“原油价格”已经作为一种政治武器,对伊朗和俄罗斯国民经济造成不小伤害。

周二早盘,美原油连继续低位下挫,延续前期惯性下行走势。美豆油3月期价静止不动继续保持右侧横盘小幅震荡,当前美国大豆出口状况良好。大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505合约延续前期震荡下挫走势,短线依旧疲软。

马来西亚毛棕榈油本周近几日出现盘中异动,马盘毛棕榈油基准3月合约周二早盘中阳上涨,已经连续几日期价小幅走高。主要原因是马来西亚近几日棕榈主产区出现暴雨,局部地区还出现洪涝灾害,对棕榈收获以及运输产生制约,令投资人士对棕榈油未来产量担忧。天气的红色警报级别以及马政府将零出口关税延长到明年2月底,提振了马盘毛棕榈油多头主力做多信心。

小结:整体全球油脂商品依旧疲软,美豆油依然原地踏步,大陆油脂商品震荡下挫,继续保持看空观点不变,个人建议操作上继续逢高短空。马盘毛棕榈盘中有异动,短线走势略有区别于内盘美盘,期价独立连续走高,整体依然在2100-2200之间运行,未明显突破上下技术位之前操作上暂可观望一下,临近上方60天线阻挡位关注其上涨的持续性。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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