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Global Markets Analysis – 23 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.12.2016 周五 美盘豆油昨日晚间长阴急跌;短线的回落整理走势出现加速触底动作

美盘豆油3月合约,前期的回落整理走势延续中,昨日晚间的长阴急挫-盘面上加速触底动作开始显现(和我们预期中相同),通常理论上来讲,连续反弹上行之后突然的瞬间拔高也就是短线回落的开始,而持续小幅下跌整理后期的盘中长阴急跌,也是宣告回落整理进入尾声阶段的信号,这2种不同的走势,这在多年的期货市场K线图表走势上已经成为众人皆知的“秘密”,对于这种常态我们以在意料之中。美盘豆油下破60天均线,“不破不立”,美豆油触底之后的反弹动作就在下周初。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,在美盘急跌下挫发生时,内盘油脂商品不可避免的追随性补跌,当前期价回落到下方60天均线位置,耐心观察在该位置的多头主力表现-关注是否出现“下影线”的护盘动作发生。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,今天周五盘面上跳空低开,在美盘与内盘整体走弱影响下,今天周五盘中也同样出现期价补跌现象,我们继续关注美盘豆油后市短线走势对该品种的影响力度。

小结:油脂类商品中,唯有美盘豆油走势符合我们前期一直以来“回落整理走势”的观点预期,而内盘与马盘曾经一度出现过假动作,在美盘的持续下挫中,内盘 与马盘前期短线多头主力的“强势整理”护盘动作宣告失败,仅仅是在跌幅上略小于美盘豆油。后市我们关注焦点继续以美盘豆油为主流,待美豆油止跌企稳时候,在内盘与马盘油脂商品上多单逢低跟进,而原先反手新进多单被套后可继续持有,我们耐心等待下周初的盘面新变化,届时我们会在第一时间通知大家具体操作。

[SUMMARY]
• Amongst major edible oils, only US soybean oil underwent a downward correction as we had anticipated.
• The downward correction of China and Malaysia edible oils is being neutralized by strong long interest, resulting in a small decline in comparison with that of US soybean oil.
• We shall focus our attention of the performance of US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders may enter long position as soon as US soybean oil stops falling and when China and Malaysia oil prices are low.
• Traders who turned long from short who maintain their position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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