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Global Markets Analysis – 23 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.02.2017 周四 内盘 马盘恐慌情绪再现 建议部分激进型短线交易者多单低位补仓

美盘豆油5月合约期价小幅横盘表现,期价下跌幅度收窄,33.00下方的空间已经不能再大。当前是南美大豆收获(巴西)与天气炒作时期(阿根廷),今日周三晚间(中国周四凌晨)美国农业部(USDA)将公布美国未来农作物种植面积(大豆种植面积),当前市场分析人士普遍认为美国大豆种植面积预估值将大幅增加,实际情况怎么?这要到具体数字出来后,我们尚才知道,也许这个数字会出现一个“契机”?后期整体来说——盘中炒作热点将转移到天气方面。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,今天又现恐慌情绪,特别是到下午盘中,期价出现急挫下跌现象,不排除受美国即将公布的大豆种植面积增加的利空情绪影响—若今天中阴K线下跌过程中,出现下影线,部分激进型短线交易者可少量多单低位接盘(埋伏就是在急跌阴K线上埋伏)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日周三盘面小阳K线表现,今天周四盘面再度小阴K线表现,盘中手大陆内盘油脂商品走势影响严重,短线走势几近相同,而跌幅略小于内盘。同样建议部分多单逢今日下午盘中低点少量补仓试盘。

小结:美盘豆油5月合约反复挑战33.00一线的支撑力度,内盘马盘油脂商品顺势急挫,美豆油可能以最后一挫来宣告本轮中线回落整理的5浪结束,建议在内盘 马盘油脂商品日内低位少量多单进行补仓操作(只建议短线激进型交易者),而前期被套多单继续持有。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil May contract repeatedly touched 33.00, as decline of China and Malaysia edible oils accelerates.
• As short-term downward correction of US soybean oils approaches the end, giving traders opportunity to enter long position at low prices.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may initiate a small number of intraday long positions.
• Traders whose long positions that were under short pressure may maintain their holdings

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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