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Global Markets Analysis – 23 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.23 周三 利空的基本面消息弥漫油脂期市

德国汉堡7月22日消息,汉堡行业刊物油世界发布公告,2014/2015年度全球油籽产量预计为5.05亿吨,高于上年的4.884亿吨,同比增幅3.4%。其中2014/2015年度全球大豆产量预计为3.056亿吨,高于早先预期的3.019亿吨,也高于上年的2.846亿吨。

油世界预计2014/2015年度全球油籽期末库存为1.02亿吨,高于上年的8590万吨,其中大豆期末库存预计为8840万吨,上年为7090万吨。从报告内容整体分析表明,全球油籽供应充足,对油脂类商品形成利空。

华盛顿7月22日消息,美国农业部(USDA)发布的农作物进展报告显示,截止到7月20日,美国大豆评级优良的比例为73%,高于前一周的72%,也高于去年同期的64%。这也是1994年以来评级最高一次。从该报告分析看出,美国大豆优良率达到20年来最高水平,农作物生长状况改善,这份数据对大豆期市利空。

昨晚美盘豆油12月,再创低点36.01,震荡下探态势依然持续,在连续的利空消息影响下,期价虽下跌幅度也不大但仍逐步走软,下方的支撑迟迟不见踪影,使得探底过程显得尤为漫长而艰难。

大陆内盘油脂商品,继续跟随美盘走低。其中棕榈油和马盘毛棕榈油由于前期整体跌幅小于豆油。今天早盘内外盘棕榈油期价出现补跌迹象,原横盘的短暂小平台被下破,表明下探动能仍存。

小结:连续的基本面利空影响下,油脂商品继续保持下行走势,期待中的技术支撑位在盘中难见踪影。短线技术上虽早已出现超卖迹象,但反弹技术要求却迟迟不见动作,这种情况是最令人无奈。思路上我们继续保持原观点不变。个人观点是在具体操作上也继续保持原操作计划不变,不急躁继续场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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