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Global Markets Analysis – 23 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.03.2016 周三 美盘豆油冲高小幅回落;内盘与马盘油脂短线仓单适量减仓

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周二晚间创新高34.18,收盘略微回落于33.90收盘。 前四天我们曾经做过美盘豆油的上升通道走势图,在上边轨被突破后,理论上期价将出现一个继续盘升一段时间,并且不排除其中会出现加速迹象。但上冲的具体高度幅度-却是一个没有办法具体测量的,只能靠多年经验、主观感觉以及盘面上的动能表现来做主观推测。这就是期货与“科学”所不同的地方,没有一个100%科学的可测量性。今天盘面上-美盘豆油亚洲电子盘出现小阴下跌,虽然不能确定本波反弹上行就已经暂告一段落,但也要引起我们内心那深藏的一丝丝警惕。(理论上讲我们需要至少2-3天的K线组合形态才能做出一个相对正确的结论预测,一天的K线远远不够)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,以及马盘毛棕榈油基准6月受美盘电子盘下跌影响,今天周三盘中期价走低,同样道理-虽然不能确定内盘与马盘油脂商品的反弹上行已经结束,但同样要引起我们的高度警惕。从本月3月3日开始的这波反弹上行运行到今天是15个交易日,累计期价涨幅已经很大,盘中的获利盘已然不少,盘面上的任何微小不利变化都需要我们的谨慎,我们在短多观点暂且保持不变情况下,短线角度的激进操作者多单可适当逢高部分减仓-建议先把一部分利润装入口袋。这也是不得以之举,防范风险远比获利多少更重要。

小结:今天周三盘中内盘与马盘油脂商品略有走软,虽然美盘尚未做出明确的反弹上行结束信号发生。但考虑到期价累计涨幅已然很大,适当保持警惕心态下的部分逢高减仓短线多单也属明智之举。仓单的具体减仓多少可依据本人意愿自己做主,个人建议最好在20%-30%仓单之间,短线平仓就是平仓,即便期价再有新高我们也不要后悔。我们此操作的目的是为防止后市期价的下跌而带来的前期利润减少。 后市继续关注美盘豆油的具体走势,未来后市(5个交易日内)的短线操作-我们基本上以逢高逐步减持短线多单为主基调。而中长线交易者手中多单暂且多持有几日,以观察后市具体走势,待明朗后再做操作决定。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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