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Global Markets Analysis – 23 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.03.2017 周四 美盘豆油反弹延续 马盘棕榈冲击前高 内盘油脂疲软下跌

美盘豆油5月合约,短线角度本波从3.14日低点开始反弹后,期价震荡走高,昨日周三晚间期价中阳K线上涨,短线的反弹走势延续中。仅仅今天周四的亚洲电子盘中的阴K线表现拖累内盘马盘油脂商品。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约(或1705合约),受美盘亚洲电子盘走低不利影响,今天周四盘面上阴K线下跌表现,其中内盘豆油品种走势表现最弱。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月(或5月),昨日周三盘中期价冲击前高(3.6日高点),短线的上攻欲望最为强烈。今天周四盘面受美盘电子盘以及内盘油脂商品不利走势影响,期价高开低走阴K线表现。

小结:单以美盘豆油短线走势来说——美豆油5月合约的短线反弹上行走势延续中,连续几根阳K线反弹上涨后,今日的一根阴K线本不足为惧(反弹上行的阳K线中怎会没有一半根阴K线?),只要这根阴K线下跌幅度不吞没前面的阳K线,我们继续短多观点对待。内盘油脂商品短线表现不尽人意(特别是豆油品种 棕榈油次之)。马盘棕榈油短线走势强劲,昨日期价大有一飞冲天感觉,今天走势受累于内盘的拖累。三地油脂商品短线走势略有分化。考虑到以美盘豆油为主要风向标—–我们短线继续以“谨慎”的短多观点对待。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有,非不到万不得已时候 多单暂不减仓。(美盘豆油今日晚间存在走低可能阴K线表现。关注下跌幅度与力度)

[SUMMARY]
• As long as the drop of today’s candle does not exceed the previous candles, we hold a short-term long pitlook.
• China edible oils show lacklustre performance.
• Malaysia palm oil weakens, after soaring on the previous session.
• With US soybean oil in focus, we cautiously hold a short-term long outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions but may close out those positions should a situation call for it.
• We shall pay close attention to the performance of US soybean oil tonight.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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