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Global Markets Analysis – 23 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.05.2016 周一 油脂类商品短线疲软下挫走势延续中

美盘豆油7月,5月19日上周四时候长阴下跌,下破趋势线的技术支撑,随后上周五继续下跌,今天周一的亚洲电子盘仍是阴K线表现,从盘面技术观察-美豆油从上升通道内滑落下来后,期价出现下跌加速迹象,下方的回落空间有多大成为我们关注的新焦点。从日K线图表上说-美豆油4月21日从通道的上边轨位置跌落下来,跌到5月6日的低点(下边轨位置)为下跌第1浪,5月6日开始的几天小幅上行到5月11日为第2浪,从5月11日开始至今天为第3小浪,并且这第3浪还未完全结束-若以第1浪与第3浪幅度相当的话,下面就还有一小段距离(大概下方止跌位置通过计算应该在30.30至30.00一线),附图。我们继续短空观点对待美盘豆油短线走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,今天周一盘中,期价大幅下挫, 特别是豆油1609合约,盘中期价补跌的成分较重。而棕榈油1609盘面上的小3浪下挫结构形态表现的更为明显些。在下方短线新的技术支撑位没有找见前,我们继续短空看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,上周五小阳表现,今天周一小阴K线表现,期价虽下破前低5月3日 2528令吉后(7月是下破上升趋势线),但期价下挫幅度不大,属于抵抗性回落整理,但我们不能就此就说明本波下挫已经结束,我们短线也要以短空观点对待。等待真正的下方止跌企稳的时机。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线下探整理进行中,后市短线走势仍属偏弱态势,只有下方真正寻找到新的支撑技术位后,才会发生反抽均线的反弹行为(而到时能否再站上上升趋势线之上或者前低点(支撑与阻挡的角色呼唤,原先是在支撑,被下破后演变为阻挡)之上目前来说这为后话。当前我们首先关注本波下挫走势的下方支撑处在什么地方,因此操作上暂以偏空观点看待,下破技术支撑后的反手短空操作的激进型短线操作者空单暂时持有,让我们共同关注下方的具体支撑位。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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